China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.
Jason Miks, “China’s Military Surprises,” The Diplomat, 28 December 2010.
I’ve written before about the common misconception when comparing Chinese and US military power that China somehow needs to go toe-to-toe with the United States to be considered a regional threat. It doesn’t …
So how would China be able to deny US ships access to the […]
Yoichi Kato, National Security Correspondent, “U.S. Commander Says China Aims to be a ‘Global Military’ Power,” Asahi Shimbun, 28 December 2010.
Q [Yoichi Kato]: Let me go into China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. What is the current status of China’s anti-ship ballistic missile development, and how close is it to actual operational deployment?
A [Admiral Robert F. […]
Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China Deploys World’s First Long-Range, Land-Based ‘Carrier Killer’: DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Reaches ‘Initial Operational Capability’ (IOC),” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 14 (26 December 2010).
Japanese translation: “中国の対艦弾道ミサイル開発に関する最近の報道について”
[ACCOMPANYING GRAPHICS AVAILABLE IN FULL COLOR VIA LINKS TO PDF COPY ABOVE]
For further information on Chinese ASBM development, see also “China Testing Anti-Ship […]
First posted 28 March 2010, updated until 25 December 2010 with additional analysis and sources:
CURRENT STATUS:
Open source data offer significant evidence that China has prioritized and is proceeding rapidly with anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development. A variety of Chinese sources have stated a desire to demonstrate the ability to threaten carrier strike groups (CSGs). China’s ASBM […]
Benjamin Kang Lim, “China Speeds Plans to Launch Aircraft Carrier: Sources,” Reuters, 23 December 201o.
4:08 am ET
BEIJING (Reuters) – China may be ready to launch its first aircraft carrier in 2011, Chinese military and political sources said on Thursday, a year ahead of U.S. military analysts’ expectations.
Analysts expect China to use its first operational aircraft […]
Benjamin Kang Lim and Chris Buckley, “Factbox: China’s Aircraft Carrier Ambitions,” Reuters, 23 December 2010.
4:08am EST
BEIJING (Reuters) – China could launch its first aircraft carrier next year, Chinese military and political sources said, a year earlier than U.S. military analysts had expected, underscoring its growing maritime power and assertiveness.
The launch of the ex-Soviet aircraft carrier […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Still a Pipedream: A Pakistan-to-China rail corridor is not a substitute for maritime transport,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 13 (22 December 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
The recent flurry of trade deals and MOUs (worth US$35 billion) signed during Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent visit to Pakistan have brought the […]
Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 1 December 2010.
Selected Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)-Related Content:
pp. 3-4
“DOD and other observers believe that the near-term focus of China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has been to develop military options for addressing the situation with Taiwan. […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “LNG Carriers to Aircraft Carriers? Assessing the Potential for Crossover between Civilian and Military Shipbuilding in China,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 12 (18 December 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Key policy implications:
China’s growing proficiency in building massive ore carriers and oil tankers suggests that Chinese yards can physically fabricate […]
Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, “Studying History to Guide China’s Rise as a Maritime Great Power,” Harvard Asia Quarterly 12.3-4 (Winter 2010): 31–38.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A HARD COPY SCAN.
After six hundred years of Western dominance on and Chinese retreat from the world’s oceans, the tides of maritime history are returning to the east. […]
Christopher D. Yung and Ross Rustici with Isaac Kardon and Joshua Wiseman, China’s Out of Area Naval Operations: Case Studies, Trajectories, Obstacles, and Potential Solutions, National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies China Strategic Perspective 3, December 2010.
Executive Summary
This study seeks to understand the future direction of the People’s Liberation Army Navy […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “In Hot Water: High-Efficiency Heat Pump Water Heaters Will Reduce Residential Energy Use in China,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 11 (16 December 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
The comfort of a hot shower is hard to beat and Chinese homeowners are moving quickly to install water heaters as they […]
Robert Farley, “Over the Horizon: The Pitfalls of the Emerging Anti-China Axis,” World Politics Review, 15 December 2010.
Concern about China’s emerging economic and military capabilities now drives the U.S. strategic debate. The development of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) by the PRC has even led some to argue that the balance of power in the Western Pacific […]
Michael Chase, “China’s Growing Naval Power,” The Progressive Fix, 14 December 2010. (Part 3 of 3).
It’s clear that China’s Navy is growing in size and quality. Not only does China have the largest navy in East Asia, it has an increasingly modern and capable force of imported and indigenously produced destroyers, frigates, missile patrol craft, […]
Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 1 December 2010.
Summary
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joints […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Natural Gas Approach: Pipelines Are Best Way to Resolve Shortages,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 10 (10 December 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s gas grid expansion is economically, environmentally, and strategically significant. Beijing’s desire to adopt cleaner sources of energy and facilitate their effective movement around China helps reduce […]
The following, as reported on p. 83 of the December 2010 issue of Popular Mechanics, suggests a measured but proactive U.S. response to Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) development:
“Adm. Patrick Walsh, the current commander of the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, sees preparation as a way to avoid a future fight. ‘When we look at these […]
Daniel J. Kostecka, “Places and Bases: The Chinese Navy’s Emerging Support Network in the Indian Ocean,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 64, No. 1 (Winter 2011), pp. 59-78.
Due to self-imposed policy, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not base military forces in foreign countries, and PRC officials have used this as evidence of China’s […]
Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “U.S. Pecan Growers Crack into Chinese Market,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 9 (9 December 2010).
Chinese pecan buyers are accumulating supplies as they prepare for the next Chinese New Year in early 2011, a peak nut consumption period in China. Rising incomes and increased demand for healthy foods are driving […]
Chinese Undersea Warfare: Development, Capabilities, Trends
Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific
Oxford Bibliography: “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”
China’s Climate Cooperation Smokescreen: A Roadmap for Seeing Through the Trap and Countering with Competition
Large-Scale Amphibious Warfare in Chinese Military Strategy
Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific
China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities
Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories and Strategic Implications
Asia’s Rising Energy and Resource Nationalism: Implications for the United States, China, and the Asia-Pacific Region
Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles
China’s S-Curve Trajectory: Structural Factors Will Likely Slow the Growth of China’s Economy and Comprehensive National Power
China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership
China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective
China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Bejing’s Maritime Policies
China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force
Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin’s Mace' Capability
China’s Nuclear Force Modernization
