Hi! Welcome...

Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

01 June 2022

Key China Excerpts from Big DIA Report: “Challenges to Security in Space: Space Reliance in an Era of Competition & Expansion”

Challenges to Security in Space: Space Reliance in an Era of Competition and Expansion (Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence Agency, 2022).

Click here to download a cached copy.
 p. iii
Challenges to Security in Space was first published in early 2019 to address the main threats to the array of U.S. space capabilities, and examine space and counterspace strategies and […]

29 May 2022

The Prof. William Murray Bookshelf: Timely Insights into PLA Trends, Cross-Strait Dynamics & Taiwan’s Defense Options

U.S. Naval War College Professor William Murray’s scholarship on the military development and capacities of China and Taiwan is path-breaking, sobering, and thought-provoking. While others have worked hard to address these important issues, Prof. Murray’s scholarship is exemplary in its ability to distill complex and often misunderstood military operational issues to their essential dynamics based […]

26 May 2022

SECSTATE Blinken’s Speech—“The Administration’s Approach to the People’s Republic of China”—Key Wording Highlighted

The Administration’s Approach to the People’s Republic of China
Speech
Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State
The George Washington University
Washington, D.C.
May 26, 2022

Click here to watch on YouTube.
“President Biden believes this decade will be decisive. The actions that we take at home and with countries worldwide will determine whether our shared vision of the future will be realized.”

SECRETARY […]

25 May 2022

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: YouTube Presentation, SECNAV Guidance, Music Video—& More!

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 May 2022.

Amid wave after wave of Coronavirus variants, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes. Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, I hope […]

25 May 2022

139th ed. of O’Rourke’s CRS Report! Great Info on PAFMM & CCG—“U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South & East China Seas: Background & Issues for Congress”

Now in its 139th (!) iteration, this periodically-updated Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 January 2022).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy […]

22 May 2022

“China’s Ports in Africa”—Great Chapter in Great Volume!

Great chapter by CMSI’s own Prof. Kardon in NBR volume edited by Nadège Rolland analyzing critical infrastructure development by PRC-affiliated entities in Africa. Insights regarding PRC motives, Huawei undersea cables, and more! Download full text, read key excerpts/highlights here…
Xi Jinping: “there’s a common saying, ‘if you want to get rich, first build a road,’ but in […]

18 May 2022

CMSI China Maritime Report #21: “Civilian Shipping and Maritime Militia: The Logistics Backbone of a Taiwan Invasion”

Lonnie D. Henley, Civilian Shipping and Maritime Militia: The Logistics Backbone of a Taiwan Invasion, China Maritime Report 21 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, May 2022).

About the Author
Lonnie Henley retired from federal service in 2019 after more than 40 years as an intelligence officer and East Asia expert. He served 22 years as […]

16 May 2022

China’s Gray Zone Strategy in the South China Sea: Emerging Trends and Deterrence Strategies

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Gray Zone Strategy in the South China Sea: Emerging Trends and Deterrence Strategies,” Kwentong Mandaragat Lecture, Foundation for the National Interest and University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, via Zoom to Manila, 25 May 2021.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE PRESENTATION ON YOUTUBE.

On 25 May […]

13 May 2022

Must-Read in International Security! “Pier Competitor: China’s Power Position in Global Ports”

Now making big waves… I’ve strongly encouraged and am deeply familiar with this body of work. Profs. Isaac Kardon and Wendy Leutert’s well-placed article is a cutting-edge piece of scholarship that elucidates important areas of China and its role in our world today. It probes the PRC “Port-folio” around the world with unique academic methodological discipline […]

28 April 2022

CMSI China Maritime Report #20: “The PLA Army Amphibious Force: Missions, Organization, Capabilities, and Training”

Dennis J. Blasko, The PLA Army Amphibious Force: Missions, Organization, Capabilities, and Training, China Maritime Report 20 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, April 2022).
This report examines the amphibious forces of the PLA Army and their preparations for large-scale amphibious operations, particularly concerning Taiwan.

About the Author
Dennis J. Blasko is a retired Army […]

21 April 2022

“Modern Chinese Maritime Forces”—1 April 2022 Edition—Covers World’s Most-Numerous Navy, Coast Guard & Maritime Militia Ships

This is the most comprehensive unclassified Chinese maritime order of battle, ship silhouettes, and data available anywhere. It tracks the world’s most-numerous Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia vessels in unrivaled detail. Even just flipping through this volume for a minute reveals the staggering scope and extent of PRC sea power across the waterfront today. I […]

18 April 2022

Eight New Points on the Porcupine: More Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan

To make Taiwan an indigestible choking hazard, here’s exactly where to invest now.
Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Eight New Points on the Porcupine: More Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan,” War on the Rocks, 18 April 2022.
Watching Russia falter in Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping may conclude that if he decides to invade Taiwan, he cannot hope […]

22 March 2022

The Center for Naval Warfare Studies (CNWS): An Introduction

Founded, in the words of Rear Admiral Stephen B. Luce, United States Navy, as “a place of original research,” one of the primary functions of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC) is to conduct research, analysis, and gaming to support the requirements of the Secretary of the Navy and others. The Center for Naval Warfare Studies […]

18 March 2022

China’s Energy Import Dependency: Potential Impacts on Sourcing Practices, Infrastructure Decisions & Military Posture

Check out this must-read testimony on China’s energy import dependency from Gabe Collins at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy! It’s part of a timely U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission (USCC) hearing on PRC energy issues…
Watch the webcast, read the text, or just scroll through Gabe’s 16 data-rich exhibits—and I guarantee you’ll come […]

13 March 2022

2013 PRC-Ukraine Treaty of Friendship & Cooperation/Joint Communiqué: Signed by Xi, But What’s it Worth?

As Putin wages war against Ukraine, and China’s position remains unclear heading into a high-level Sino-American meeting on this issue, the 2013 Joint Communiqué and Treaty that Beijing concluded with Kiev under Xi himself raises important questions about PRC commitments. Consider the first line of the actual Communiqué itself: “2013年12月5日签署的《中华人民共和国和乌克兰友好合作条约》具有重要意义,标志着中乌关系迈上更高发展水平。” [“There is important meaning to […]

12 March 2022

O’Rourke’s Latest CRS Report—USG/N Info on PLAN Ships & Projections of #s Lead thru 2040—“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities”

As part of Ronald O’Rourke’s continuous incremental improvements, this 261st (!) edition of his report on PRC naval modernization incorporates numbers provided by the U.S. Navy. Given the authoritative analysis supporting these revelations, and the rarity with which they are made publicly available in this manner, they are all worth reading carefully in full!
Bottom line […]

10 March 2022

CMSI China Maritime Report #19: “The PLA Airborne Corps in a Joint Island Landing Campaign”

Cristina L. Garafola, The PLA Airborne Corps in a Joint Island Landing Campaign, China Maritime Report 19 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, March 2022).

About the Author

Cristina L. Garafola is an associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on the ramifications of China’s rise for its global status, particularly […]

09 March 2022

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community—Key China Content

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (McLean, VA: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 2022). [with information as of January 2022]

PRC-specific content, pp. 6–9:

CHINA
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue efforts to achieve President’s Xi Jinping’s vision of making China the preeminent power in East Asia […]

07 March 2022

Lead Senior Navy School’s Research Arm through Critical Decade of Great Power Competition—Apply Today to Become Dean, CNWS, Naval War College!

Apply now to become the next Dean, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (CNWS) at the Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, Rhode Island—the Navy’s “Home of Thought”! The next individual in this intellectually pivotal position will provide thought leadership and management for a dynamic team of scholars, analysts, international and military operational law experts, cyber specialists, war gamers, […]