Andrew S. Erickson

Lonnie D. Henley, Civilian Shipping and Maritime Militia: The Logistics Backbone of a Taiwan Invasion, China Maritime Report 21 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, May 2022).

About the Author
Lonnie Henley retired from federal service in 2019 after more than 40 years as an intelligence officer and East Asia expert. He served 22 years as […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Gray Zone Strategy in the South China Sea: Emerging Trends and Deterrence Strategies,” Kwentong Mandaragat Lecture, Foundation for the National Interest and University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, via Zoom to Manila, 25 May 2021.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE PRESENTATION ON YOUTUBE.

On 25 May […]

Now making big waves… I’ve strongly encouraged and am deeply familiar with this body of work. Profs. Isaac Kardon and Wendy Leutert’s well-placed article is a cutting-edge piece of scholarship that elucidates important areas of China and its role in our world today. It probes the PRC “Port-folio” around the world with unique academic methodological discipline […]

Dennis J. Blasko, The PLA Army Amphibious Force: Missions, Organization, Capabilities, and Training, China Maritime Report 20 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, April 2022).
This report examines the amphibious forces of the PLA Army and their preparations for large-scale amphibious operations, particularly concerning Taiwan.

About the Author
Dennis J. Blasko is a retired Army […]

This is the most comprehensive unclassified Chinese maritime order of battle, ship silhouettes, and data available anywhere. It tracks the world’s most-numerous Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia vessels in unrivaled detail. Even just flipping through this volume for a minute reveals the staggering scope and extent of PRC sea power across the waterfront today. I […]

To make Taiwan an indigestible choking hazard, here’s exactly where to invest now.
Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Eight New Points on the Porcupine: More Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan,” War on the Rocks, 18 April 2022.
Watching Russia falter in Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping may conclude that if he decides to invade Taiwan, he cannot hope […]

Founded, in the words of Rear Admiral Stephen B. Luce, United States Navy, as “a place of original research,” one of the primary functions of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC) is to conduct research, analysis, and gaming to support the requirements of the Secretary of the Navy and others. The Center for Naval Warfare Studies […]

Check out this must-read testimony on China’s energy import dependency from Gabe Collins at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy! It’s part of a timely U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission (USCC) hearing on PRC energy issues…
Watch the webcast, read the text, or just scroll through Gabe’s 16 data-rich exhibits—and I guarantee you’ll come […]

As Putin wages war against Ukraine, and China’s position remains unclear heading into a high-level Sino-American meeting on this issue, the 2013 Joint Communiqué and Treaty that Beijing concluded with Kiev under Xi himself raises important questions about PRC commitments. Consider the first line of the actual Communiqué itself: “2013年12月5日签署的《中华人民共和国和乌克兰友好合作条约》具有重要意义，标志着中乌关系迈上更高发展水平。” [“There is important meaning to […]

As part of Ronald O’Rourke’s continuous incremental improvements, this 261st (!) edition of his report on PRC naval modernization incorporates numbers provided by the U.S. Navy. Given the authoritative analysis supporting these revelations, and the rarity with which they are made publicly available in this manner, they are all worth reading carefully in full!
Bottom line […]

Cristina L. Garafola, The PLA Airborne Corps in a Joint Island Landing Campaign, China Maritime Report 19 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, March 2022).

About the Author

Cristina L. Garafola is an associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on the ramifications of China’s rise for its global status, particularly […]

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (McLean, VA: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 2022). [with information as of January 2022]

PRC-specific content, pp. 6–9:

CHINA
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue efforts to achieve President’s Xi Jinping’s vision of making China the preeminent power in East Asia […]

Apply now to become the next Dean, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (CNWS) at the Naval War College (NWC) in Newport, Rhode Island—the Navy’s “Home of Thought”! The next individual in this intellectually pivotal position will provide thought leadership and management for a dynamic team of scholars, analysts, international and military operational law experts, cyber specialists, war gamers, […]

China to raise military budget by 7.1% this year
By Zhao Lei | China Daily | Updated: 2022-03-06 14:10

China plans to raise its annual defense budget by 7.1 percent to 1.45 trillion yuan ($230 billion) for the 2022 fiscal year, its seventh-straight year of single-digit growth, according to a draft budget plan unveiled on Saturday.
The figures were […]

The last decade has seen the reemergence of Russia from its post-Cold War malaise. In this environment, it is vital that the U.S. and its partners develop a clear understanding of the strategic and operational factors that shape Russia’s approach to maritime issues and that drive Russian military and foreign policy decision making.
At sea, Russia […]

The Russian Navy – A Historic Transition
ONI’s most recent unclassified report on Russia’s navy, The Russian Navy – A Historic Transition, looks historically and currently at the role played by Russian naval forces. It is the first such report discussing the Russian Federation Navy by ONI since the seventh and last issue of Understanding Soviet […]

A comprehensive order of battle containing all aircraft in service over the previous seven decades right up to now in Moscow’s Naval Aviation (AVMF), Military Air Force (VVS), Air Defense Forces (PVO), and Long-Range Aviation (DA). Use this unique and timely unclassified reference for open source research and war gaming!
Larry Bond, Chris Carlson, and Peter […]

A comprehensive compendium of Moscow’s naval ships and associated missiles/weapons & sensors from seven decades ago to right now, as you’ve never seen them before… Consult this unparalleled unclassified reference for analysis or war gaming today! 
Larry Bond, Chris Carlson, and Peter Grining, eds., Russia’s Navy: The Soviet and Russian Navy, 1955 – Present Day (Admiralty Trilogy Group, […]

Bottom line up front: Virtue signaling is no substitute for deterrence signaling!
Andrew S. Erickson, “Putin’s Ukraine Invasion Underscores: Nuclear Posture Review Must Preserve (Extended) Deterrence 100%, Avoid Dangerous ‘Sole Purpose’ Language, etc.,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 24 February 2022.
As tonight’s unfolding Ukraine tragedy underscores only too starkly, the Biden Administration must preserve deterrence, including […]