Andrew S. Erickson

REPORT
2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 9 April 2021).

Click here to download previous reports back to 2005.
HEARING
Senate Armed Services Committee, “Hearing: Worldwide Threats,” 29 April 2021.
Witnesses:

Lieutenant General Berrier, DIA Director: Written Testimony
Honorable Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence: Written Testimony

Hearing Video (~90 minutes)

China  4:22, 25  5:2, […]

It’s not often that a single article opens up a major window into a vital, under-studied area. This must-read piece does all that, and more… Be sure to read the fascinating details and view the informative maps and revealing photos—many of which show immediately why there were no substantial “settlements” in the contested but climatically […]

Bill McKibben, “Bargaining with China Today to Save the World Tomorrow,” New Yorker, 30 April 2021.
… … … On the day the summit ended, however, China hinted at the price of its further coöperation: acquiescence to Beijing’s policies on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and, perhaps, Taiwan. “Our two countries still have many differences, but still, President […]

“Andrew S. Erickson on the ‘Decade of Greatest Danger’,” interviewed by Eyck Freymann, The Wire China, 25 April 2021.

A Q&A With Andrew S. Erickson
Andrew Erickson is a Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute and an expert on China’s military. His recent work has focused on China’s “maritime gray zone […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 24 April 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]

The latest pathbreaking analysis from Greg Poling and his colleagues at AMTI!
“Caught on Camera: Two Dozen Militia Boats at Whitsun Reef Identified,” Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 21 April 2021.

Last month, the National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea, an interagency body housed within the Presidential Office in Manila, […]

Ryan D. Martinson and Andrew S. Erickson, “Manila’s Images Are Revealing the Secrets of China’s Maritime Militia,” Foreign Policy, 19 April 2021.
Details of the ships haunting disputed rocks show China’s plans.

Six Chinese fishing vessels believed to be part of the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia, including the Yuexinhuiyu 60138 and 60139, are moored together at Whitsun Reef […]

Just released: a landmark volume with 474 data-packed pages and 1,955 endnotes on the evolution of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force since its founding in 1949! Entitled “70 Years of the PLA Air Force,” this unique reference is published by the China Aerospace Studies Institute, based at Air University and National Defense University. There […]

“Critical Issues Confronting China Series Seminar Featuring M. Taylor Fravel – China’s Military Strategy in the New Era,” via Zoom, Harvard Fairbank Center, 24 March 2021.
***Recording now available!*** Click here to listen to the event on SoundCloud.

12:30 PM – 1:45 PM

Speaker: M. Taylor Fravel, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel Collins, “Competition with China Can Save the Planet: Pressure, Not Partnership, Will Spur Progress on Climate Change,” Foreign Affairs 100.3 (May/June 2021): 136–49.

China’s climate diplomacy stands at a great remove from the country’s coal-hungry industrial reality.

When it comes to climate change, the United States should compete, not cooperate, with China.

ANDREW S. ERICKSON is […]

Brad Lendon, “Beijing Has a Navy it Doesn’t Even Admit Exists, Experts Say. And it’s Swarming Parts of the South China Sea,” CNN, 12 April 2021.
… … … Despite Chinese government denials, there is little ambiguity in Western circles about what the Pentagon calls the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). …
Some experts have taken to […]

Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World (Office of the Director of National Intelligence: National Intelligence Council, March 2021).

KEY CHINA-RELATED CONTENT (Hypothetical scenarios excluded because their details are notional):
I. MAIN REPORT
p. 7
“Asian economies appear poised to continue decades of growth, at least through 2030, and are looking to use their economic and population size to influence […]

Manfred Meyer (edited by Larry Bond and Chris Carlson), Modern Chinese Maritime Forces (Admiralty Trilogy Group, 1 April 2021).

“A compilation of all ships and boats of the Chinese Navy, Coast Guard, Maritime Militia and other state authorities”
In terms of ship numbers, each of China’s three sea forces is the world’s largest by a large margin. For […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Ryan D. Martinson, “Records Expose China’s Maritime Militia at Whitsun Reef,” Foreign Policy, 29 March 2021.
Beijing Claims They Are Fishing Vessels. The Data Shows Otherwise.
Accompanying slide deck: Andrew S. Erickson and Ryan D. Martinson, “Exposed! Here are China’s Maritime Militia Ships at Whitsun Reef,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 29 March […]

For analysis of Chinese maritime policy and China Coast Guard development, it simply doesn’t get any better than this. Enjoy this fully updated one-stop library of my colleague Prof. Ryan Martinson’s work. It’s well worth reading all of these superb publications and interviews, even as they exceed three dozen in number!
Most recently, as both […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Secretive Maritime Militia May Be Gathering at Whitsun Reef,” Foreign Policy, 22 March 2021.
Boats designed to overwhelm civilian foes can be turned into shields in real conflict.

An obscure boomerang-shaped feature in the South China Sea may host the next phase of PRC maritime coercion. Since at least March 7, 2021, many […]

Aie Balagtas See and Zachary Haver, “Manila Protests Presence of Hundreds of Chinese Ships in Contested Waters,” Radio Free Asia, 22 March 2021.

… … … According to Philippine National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr., the 220 Chinese ships were seen moored at the “large boomerang shaped shallow coral reef” [Whitsun Reef] on March 7 – […]

Brilliant must-read article on one of the few potentially productive areas for U.S.-China security dialogue and cooperation at this time!

Robert D. Williams, “What’s Next for U.S.-China Military Relations?” Lawfare Blog, 22 March 22, 2021.

Professor Williams is a senior research scholar, lecturer, and executive director of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He is also a nonresident […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 21 March 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]