Andrew S. Erickson

Brad Lendon, “Beijing Has a Navy it Doesn’t Even Admit Exists, Experts Say. And it’s Swarming Parts of the South China Sea,” CNN, 12 April 2021.
… … … Despite Chinese government denials, there is little ambiguity in Western circles about what the Pentagon calls the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). …
Some experts have taken to […]

Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World (Office of the Director of National Intelligence: National Intelligence Council, March 2021).

KEY CHINA-RELATED CONTENT (Hypothetical scenarios excluded because their details are notional):
I. MAIN REPORT
p. 7
“Asian economies appear poised to continue decades of growth, at least through 2030, and are looking to use their economic and population size to influence […]

Manfred Meyer (edited by Larry Bond and Chris Carlson), Modern Chinese Maritime Forces (Admiralty Trilogy Group, 1 April 2021).

“A compilation of all ships and boats of the Chinese Navy, Coast Guard, Maritime Militia and other state authorities”
In terms of ship numbers, each of China’s three sea forces is the world’s largest by a large margin. For […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Ryan D. Martinson, “Records Expose China’s Maritime Militia at Whitsun Reef,” Foreign Policy, 29 March 2021.
Beijing Claims They Are Fishing Vessels. The Data Shows Otherwise.
Accompanying slide deck: Andrew S. Erickson and Ryan D. Martinson, “Exposed! Here are China’s Maritime Militia Ships at Whitsun Reef,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 29 March […]

For analysis of Chinese maritime policy and China Coast Guard development, it simply doesn’t get any better than this. Enjoy this fully updated one-stop library of my colleague Prof. Ryan Martinson’s work. It’s well worth reading all of these superb publications and interviews, even as they exceed three dozen in number!
Most recently, as both […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Secretive Maritime Militia May Be Gathering at Whitsun Reef,” Foreign Policy, 22 March 2021.
Boats designed to overwhelm civilian foes can be turned into shields in real conflict.

An obscure boomerang-shaped feature in the South China Sea may host the next phase of PRC maritime coercion. Since at least March 7, 2021, many […]

Aie Balagtas See and Zachary Haver, “Manila Protests Presence of Hundreds of Chinese Ships in Contested Waters,” Radio Free Asia, 22 March 2021.

… … … According to Philippine National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr., the 220 Chinese ships were seen moored at the “large boomerang shaped shallow coral reef” [Whitsun Reef] on March 7 – […]

Brilliant must-read article on one of the few potentially productive areas for U.S.-China security dialogue and cooperation at this time!

Robert D. Williams, “What’s Next for U.S.-China Military Relations?” Lawfare Blog, 22 March 22, 2021.

Professor Williams is a senior research scholar, lecturer, and executive director of the Paul Tsai China Center at Yale Law School. He is also a nonresident […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 21 March 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]

This Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 18 March 2021).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access the […]

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 9 March 2021).
Having trouble accessing the website above? Please download a cached copy here!
You can also click here to access the report via the public CRS website.

In addition to his continuous incremental improvements, Ronald O’Rourke has revised this latest edition […]

Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing: United States Indo-Pacific Command
Date: Tuesday, March 9, 2021
Time: 09:30 AM
Location: Room SD-G50, Dirksen Senate Office Building

Agenda
To receive testimony on United States Indo-Pacific Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2022 and the Future Years Defense Program.
*There will be a closed session at 8:00a.m., immediately prior […]

This latest set of major reports from Japan’s Defense Ministry brims with exquisitely detailed graphics that convey important new information. (Identical versions in English and Japanese.) Those of us who’ve long enjoyed exchanges with Japanese government interlocutors are familiar with this elegant style. The course I took with Edward Tufte makes me think he’d plead for fewer […]

Ronald O’Rourke, Renewed Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress, R43838 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 4 March 2021).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access the report via the new public CRS website.

Summary

The renewal of great power competition was acknowledged alongside other considerations in […]

Report to Congress, Annual Freedom of Navigation Report, Fiscal Year 2020 (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 27 January 2021).

p. 3
The Annual DoD FON Report
Every year, DoD releases an unclassified report identifying the excessive maritime claims that U.S. forces operationally challenged over the last fiscal year.
Below is a summary of excessive maritime claims that DoD […]

Must-read analysis by two former officials with top-level experience and expertise!
Alexander B. Gray and Douglas W. Domenech, “U.S. Territories: The Frontlines of Global Competition with China,” RealClearDefense, 11 March 2021.
Alexander B. Gray, a Senior Fellow in National Security Affairs at the American Foreign Policy Council, served on the staff of the National Security Council from 2018 to […]

Honored to be included in this tour de force treatment of a timely topic, with a dream team of experts quoted in-depth!

Great to see extensive coverage of CMSI’s latest China Maritime Report, by top Office of Naval Intelligence analysts Jennifer Rice and Erik Robb!
Here’s my latest Chinese Naval Shipbuilding Bookshelf, as cited in the feature […]

Who got China “wrong”? Many, sadly… Who got China “right”? General Charles Hooper, for one!
I knew General Hooper KNEW the PRC in meeting him there when he served as Defense Attaché, U.S. Embassy Beijing (2007–09).
But it’s worth revisiting his insights from even before that, in 2006, during his second time at Harvard.
Having received an MPA […]

This foundational survey of modern PLA studies reveals the state of the field just before the two decades’ meteoric growth to its present profusion. It specifically covers five dozen of the most significant works published over the past three decades, together with other sources emerging from China’s government and in then-still-new media such as the […]