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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

17 November 2014

China’s Blue Soft Power: Antipiracy, Engagement, and Image Enhancement

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “China’s Blue Soft Power: Antipiracy, Engagement, and Image Enhancement,” Naval War College Review 68.1 (Winter 2015): 71–91.
Translated in traditional Chinese as:
艾瑞克森 [Andrew S. Erickson] 博士、史崔奇 [Austin M. Strange] 博士生; 譯者: 翟文中 (海軍備役上校) [Translation by Capt. CHAI Wen-Chung, ROC-N (Ret.)], “中國大陸的遠洋軟實力 打擊海盜、國際交往與形象提升(上)” [Mainland China’s Use of Blue Water Soft Power […]

17 November 2014

Writing to Think: The Intellectual Journey of a Naval Career

Robert C. Rubel, Writing to Think: The Intellectual Journey of a Naval Career, Naval War College Newport Paper 41 (2014).
NEWPORT PAPER 41- In his introduction to the forty-first Newport Paper monogram,Writing to Think: The Intellectual Journey of a Naval Career, Captain Robert C. “Barney” Rubel writes, “The articles in this Newport Paper are a selection of those […]

17 November 2014

Dennis Gormley: What 10th Zhuhai Airshow Reveals About China’s Military Capabilities

Bree Feng, “Q. and A.: Dennis M. Gormley on China’s Military Capabilities,” SinoSphere, New York Times, 10 November 2014.
Every two years since 1996, the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, the largest air show in China, has been held in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, attracting thousands of commercial traders and military enthusiasts. This year its opening […]

17 November 2014

China Shows Off New Stealth Fighter

Bill Savadove, “China Shows Off New Stealth Fighter,” AFP, 12 November 2014.
Zhuhai (China) (AFP) – China’s new stealth jet fighter rocketed skywards Wednesday as Beijing puts on an unprecedented display of openness — and military force — at the country’s premier airshow.
The black J-31 rose in a nearly vertical climb on take-off in Zhuhai before […]

09 November 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #83: “China’s First Cold Snap Will Once Again Expose Serious Natural Gas Shortages and Drive Historically High LNG Import Demand”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s First Cold Snap Will Once Again Expose Serious Natural Gas Shortages and Drive Historically High LNG Import Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 83 (9 November 2014).

China’s weather so far in Fall 2014 has been relatively mild, in contrast to 2009 and 2013, when November cold waves prompted major […]

09 November 2014

Obama, Xi to Meet in Beijing Amid Political and Economic Strains

David Nakamura and Steven Mufson, “Obama, Xi to Meet in Beijing Amid Political and Economic Strains,” Washington Post, 8 November 2014.
When President Obama arrives in Beijing on Monday for his first visit since 2009, Chinese President Xi Jinping will welcome him with all the pomp of a state visit. That evening, fireworks will open a […]

05 November 2014

Col. Steve Hagel, USAF (Ret.), Air Force Research Institute, Reviews “Rebalancing U.S. Forces” in Strategic Studies Quarterly

Col. Steve Hagel, USAF (Ret.), Defense Analyst, Air Force Research Institute; review of Carnes Lord and Andrew S. Erickson, eds., Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014); Strategic Studies Quarterly (November 2014).
Hagel is absolutely correct that we had to make difficult choices regarding what to include in the […]

05 November 2014

Time to Make Lemonade: Dan Twining Explains How President Obama Can Work With Congress to Secure Asia-Pacific Rebalance Legacy

One of the great things in life (in politics and elsewhere) is that even setbacks bring opportunities. Dan Twining makes a persuasive case that President Obama needs to act now to shore up his Asia-Pacific Rebalance–a signature part of his legacy that is not yet sufficiently funded or implemented. It’s time to make a full pitcher […]

05 November 2014

Lead-Up to Beijing APEC Summit: The National Interest Hosts Great Debate on U.S.-China Strategic Relations

The National Interest demonstrates once again why it is one of the go-to forums for serious policy analysts. I’m always proud to publish there, and it’s a very enjoyable experience. Here’s why: instead of stipulating slick, superficial posts, the editors encourage in-depth analysis and serious debates. They even allow for occasional Chinese characters, which is […]

05 November 2014

China’s Recent Submarine Development & Deployment: Two Great Articles

Two unusually well-written articles by top journalists. Definitely worth reading if you haven’t already.
 
Jeremy Page, “Deep Threat: China’s Submarines Add Nuclear-Strike Capability, Altering Strategic Balance,” Wall Street Journal, October 24, 2014.
One Sunday morning last December, China’s defense ministry summoned military attachés from several embassies to its monolithic Beijing headquarters.
To the foreigners’ surprise, the Chinese said […]

05 November 2014

“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”: Latest Version of Ronald O’Rourke’s Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 8 September 2014), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful Navy with a modest but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its […]

03 November 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #82: “Gasoline Alley: How Much Gasoline Demand Are Each Million Cars Sold in China Worth?”

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Gasoline Alley: How Much Gasoline Demand Are Each Million Cars Sold in China Worth?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 82 (3 November 2014).

Key Takeaways:

Over the past two years, gasoline output at Sinopec and CNPC/PetroChina has surged relative to diesel fuel, reaching a new high of 0.71 barrels of gasoline produced […]

23 October 2014

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) # 81: “Physician, Heal Thyself: Modest Expectations in Order for China’s Reforms as Third Plenum Anniversary Approaches”

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Physician, Heal Thyself: Modest Expectations in Order for China’s Reforms as Third Plenum Anniversary Approaches,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 81 (23 October 2014).

President Xi Jinping’s vigorous promotion of new policy paths is colliding with powerful vested interests. China’s leaders appear to know what economic reforms are needed, but how, […]

18 October 2014

“Not an Idea We Have to Shun”: Chinese Overseas Basing Requirements in the 21st Century

NDU’s China Center has done it again! This is the very model of taking a controversial emerging topic of great importance and analyzing it systematically to yield insights that are innovative yet completely reasonable. We need less sloganeering and recycling of platitudes, and more research like this!
Christopher D. Yung and Ross Rustici with Scott Devary […]

18 October 2014

Here Comes China’s Great White Fleet

Before I end up quoting everything from this seminal article, you simply must read it in full yourself if you haven’t already done so!
“the PRC has not built the world’s largest coast guard fleet to conduct search and rescue operations or protect the environment…. Nor would it make economic sense to invest billions of dollars… […]

17 October 2014

Naval War College Seeking Sharp Analyst for Highly-Desirable Position in Newport

Here’s a great opportunity to join a world-class research community in a prime location. Do you have years of experience in warfare analysis, excellent critical thinking skills, and a desire to work closely with the best in the field? Getting tired of a Beltway commute, and/or want to have access to the Greater Boston Area […]

16 October 2014

“Energy Nationalism Goes to Sea in Asia,” in NBR’s Energy Security and the Asia-Pacific: Course Reader

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Energy Nationalism Goes to Sea in Asia,” in Mikkal E. Herberg, ed., Energy Security and the Asia-Pacific: Course Reader (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, October 2014).
The Asia-Pacific is now the center of growth in global energy and commodity demand. Driven by rapid and sustained economic development […]

10 October 2014

Not-So-Empty Talk: The Danger of China’s “New Type of Great-Power Relations” Slogan

Words matter. Dr. Adam Liff and I offer recommendations for avoiding the real “great power” trap by seeking a responsible reset for U.S.-China relations.
Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “Not-So-Empty Talk: The Danger of China’s ‘New Type of Great-Power Relations’ Slogan,” Foreign Affairs, 9 October 2014.
In uncritically signing on to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “new type […]

06 October 2014

Highlights of Dr. Jonathan Pollack’s China/Asia-Watching Career

An interesting interview with my respected mentor, and former Princeton dissertation committee reader and Naval War College colleague, Dr. Jonathan Pollack. Anyone who knows Jonathan knows that he always forms his own conclusions and clearly says what he thinks, without fear or favor! He was a pleasure to work for, and with, in Newport, and […]