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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

22 April 2014

Parallel Progress, Positive Potential: Sino-American Cooperation to Further Sea Lane Security in the Gulf of Aden

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “Parallel Progress, Positive Potential: Sino-American Cooperation to Further Sea Lane Security in the Gulf of Aden,” China International Strategy Review 2013 (2013): 479–501.
Click here to read the online version.

Anti-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden represent a successful example of international cooperation to secure sea lines of communication (SLOC), which involves […]

21 April 2014

China Goes Ballistic

Andrew S. Erickson and Michael S. Chase, “China Goes Ballistic,” The National Interest 131 (May-June 2014): 58-64.
CHINA IS INCREASINGLY A FORCE TO BE RECKONED WITH, not only economically but also militarily. Its aggressive stance toward some of its neighbors, along with Asia’s growing economic importance and the need to assure U.S. allies that Washington will increase […]

20 April 2014

Far Eastern Promises: Why Washington Should Focus on Asia

This cogent article by two experienced experts is a must read! It should help inform U.S. Asia-Pacific policy moving forward, and could help inspire the formal Asia-Pacific Strategy that Washington so badly needs. For key policy recommendations, consider especially the following paragraph:
“In Asia, economics and security are inextricably linked, and the United States will not […]

17 April 2014

Mearsheimer’s Big Question: Can China Rise Peacefully?

Brilliant piece here by Julian Snelder. Here’s hoping that he’s able to publish more in the future!
Julian Snelder, “Mearsheimer’s Big Question: Can China Rise Peacefully?” The Lowy Interpreter, 15 April 2014.
The University of Chicago’s famed international relations theorist John Mearsheimer has generously updated, and posted free of charge, the epilogue to his legendary realist book The Tragedy […]

12 April 2014

Bryan McGrath Highlights Must-Read Goldstein-Knight Proceedings Article on Chinese ASW Development

Bryan McGrath, “China Thinks ASW,” Information Dissemination, 11 April 2014.
Lyle Goldstein at the China Maritime Studies Institute is a national treasure (along with his colleague, Andrew Erickson), and he has teamed up once again with Shannon Knight from the Naval Undersea Warfare Center to produce a fascinating article in this month’s Proceedings, which is unfortunately behind the […]

12 April 2014

Session Videos Now Available: Asan China Conference 2014, “Assessing China’s Power”

Asan China Conference 2014, “Assessing China’s Power”
The Asan Institute for Policy Studies hosted the Asan China Conference 2014 under the theme of “Assessing China’s Power” at 9:30AM on Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at the institute.
The rise of China’s power is a topic of interest throughout the world. Yet, assessing it in a systematic and empirical […]

10 April 2014

The US Navy and the Pivot: Less Means Less

This provocative piece raises difficult issues that cannot be ignored…
William Kyle, “The US Navy and the Pivot: Less Means Less,” The Diplomat, 31 March 2014.
Five years of Obama administration foreign policy are in the history books as the world continues to move beyond the era of the Global War on Terror. While the jury is […]

29 March 2014

Keeping the Near Seas Peaceful: American and Allied Mission, Asia-Pacific Interest

Andrew S. Erickson, “Keeping the Near Seas Peaceful: American and Allied Mission, Asia-Pacific Interest,” in Richard Pearson, ed., East China Sea Tensions, Perspectives and Implications (Washington, DC: Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, 2014), 23-30.
By any measure, China’s economy and defense budget are second in size only to those of the United States. China is already a world-class […]

18 March 2014

Eight Bells Book Lecture on Chinese Antipiracy Operations Reviewed by John Kennedy in Newport Navalog

John Kennedy, Director of Education, Naval War College Museum, “Authors Examine China’s Anti-Piracy Efforts,” Newport Navalog 114.9 (7 March 2014), 8.
Professor Andrew Erickson discussed his new book, No Substitute for Experience: Chinese Antipiracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden, on Feb. 27 at the Naval War College Museum’s Eight Bells Lecture Series. Co-written with Austin Strange, the book […]

14 March 2014

China Insights from DIA Director LtGen Flynn’s SASC Testimony

Michael T. Flynn, Lieutenant General, U.S. Army, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, “Annual Threat Assessment,” Statement Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, United States Senate, Washington, DC, 11 February 2014.
Here are the China-relevant excerpts from Lt. Gen. Flynn’s recent testimony. I’ve bolded and underlined the ones I believe to be most interesting and important. These include:

details on China’s growing foreign military sales
confirmation that negotiations remain ongoing for Su-35 sale (I think China is especially interested in the Saturn 117S/AL-41F1A […]

13 March 2014

China’s Military Spending: At the Double

“China’s Military Spending: At the Double,” The Economist, 15 March 2014.
China’s fast-growing defence budget worries its neighbours, but not every trend is in its favour …
In one of the biggest military reforms for years, announced in January, China is now attempting to create a Western-style structure of joint command. But that may prove a long […]

13 March 2014

Washington Post Editorial: “Beijing’s Breakneck Defense Spending Poses a Challenge to the U.S.”

“Beijing’s Breakneck Defense Spending Poses a Challenge to the U.S.,” Editorial, Washington Post, 12 March 2014.
CHINA PRESENTS the rest of the world with a puzzle when it announces, each year, another big leap in defense spending. On March 5, it revealed a 12.2 percent increase over last year, to almost $132 billion, the second-largest military budget in the world after […]

12 March 2014

Eight Bells Book Lecture: “No Substitute for Experience: Chinese Anti-Piracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden”

Andrew S. Erickson, “No Substitute for Experience: Chinese Anti-Piracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden,” Eight Bells Book Lecture, Naval War College Museum, Newport, RI, 27 February 2014.
Click here to watch the video on YouTube.
Volume covered in lecture:
Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, No Substitute for Experience: Chinese Anti-Piracy Operations in the Gulf of Aden, […]

12 March 2014

Latest Edition of “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress” by Ronald O’Rourke, Congressional Research Service (CRS)

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 28 February 2014), RL33153.
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful Navy with a modest but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its […]

08 March 2014

China’s Defense Budget: A Mixed Bag

Zachary Keck, “China’s Defense Budget: A Mixed Bag,” The Diplomat, 8 March 2014.
For the U.S. and its allies, China’s new defense budget contains both bad news and good news. …
Let’s begin with the bad. First, as is well known, China’s military spending in 2014 is almost certain to far exceed $132 billion, as Beijing is […]

05 March 2014

China Announces 12.2% Increase in Military Budget

Edward Wong, “China Announces 12.2% Increase in Military Budget,” New York Times, 5 March 2014.
… Andrew S. Erickson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said that China’s military spending growth was impressive but could slow, given that it is dependent on the nation’s overall economic health.
“China’s military budget growth continues to steam […]

05 March 2014

Full Steam Ahead: China’s Ever-Increasing Military Budget

Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “Full Steam Ahead: China’s Ever-Increasing Military Budget,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 5 March 2014.
China’s official defense budget is projected to increase 12.2% in 2014 to roughly 808 billion yuan ($132 Billion), while the country’s economic growth is expected to hold steady at 7.5%, according […]

04 March 2014

It’s Official: China’s Official Defense Budget to Increase 12.2% in 2014 to ~$132 Billion (808.2 Billion Yuan)

“China Defense Budget to Increase 12.2% in 2014,” Xinhua, 5 March 2014.
Updated: 2014-03-05 09:18
BEIJING – China plans to raise its defense budget by 12.2 percent to 808.2 billion yuan (about $132 billion) in 2014, according to a budget report to be reviewed by the national legislature on Wednesday.
In 2013, the country spent 720.197 billion yuan on […]

04 March 2014

Chinese Air- and Space-Based ISR: Integrating Aerospace Combat Capabilities over the Near Seas

Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese Air- and Space-Based ISR: Integrating Aerospace Combat Capabilities over the Near Seas,” in Peter A. Dutton, Andrew S. Erickson, and Ryan D. Martinson, eds., China’s Near Seas Combat Capabilities, Naval War College China Maritime Study 11 (February 2014), 87–117.

China’s progressively more potent naval platforms, aircraft, and missiles are increasingly capable of holding U.S. Navy platforms and their supporting assets at risk in the […]