Andrew S. Erickson

Incisive analysis on a timely and important topic!
Jessica Chen Weiss, “Authoritarian Signaling, Mass Audiences, and Nationalist Protest in China,” International Organization, 67.1 (January 2013): 1-35.
How can authoritarian states credibly signal their intentions in international crises? Nationalist, antiforeign protests are one mechanism by which authoritarian leaders can visibly demonstrate their domestic vulnerability. Because protests in authoritarian […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Pentagon Report Reveals Chinese Military Developments,” The Diplomat, 8 May 2013.
After a year-long hiatus, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)’s annual report on Chinese military developments is back and better than ever. Its 43-page 2012 predecessor was widely criticized for arriving far later than Congress requested and containing little substance or new data. But […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Unpacking the Riches of the Pentagon’s China Report,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 7 May 2013.
The U.S. Department of Defense annual report on Chinese military developments, released on Monday, has made a splash by putting forth the most direct official accusations so far of Chinese cyberintrusions into the U.S. government computers. […]

Click here to read the full text report.
Here is a summary via American Forces Press Service of statements by David F. Helvey, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, at the time of the report’s release (HT: Burgess Laird).
In extremely welcome change from last year, the 2013 report is detailed and substantive.
Text of particular interest:
ASBM
pp. 5-6:

“China is […]

Here’s my initial read:
As its name implies, this latest PRC Defense White Paper provides an overall survey not only of further development of core PLA capabilities, but also of an array of secondary roles and missions that is broadening in nature and geographic scope.
In terms of specific data points, it is interesting that personnel figures […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Playing with Fire, Round 2: North Korea’s Potential Missile Threat to Asian Oil Refining Infrastructure,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 70 (14 April 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
We first addressed the issue of potential North Korean threats to oil refining infrastructure in Northeast Asia in the fall of 2010. Unfortunately, […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “March: China’s Month of Mistakes,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 12 April 2013.
March was a tough month for China’s foreign policymakers, with four high-profile foreign policy fumbles, two of which significantly helped to raise the risk of tension and crisis in East Asia. While all but one […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Defense Budget: A Richer Nation Builds a Stronger Army,” Inaugural Presentation in “China Reality Check” Speaker Series, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, DC, 8 April 2012.
Click here to watch a webcast of the event.
Also available on YouTube.
Sponsored and Moderated by Christopher K. Johnson, Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair […]

Marc Szepan, review of Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011); The Aerospace Professional (April 2013): 24.
An aerospace executive currently studying for a DPhil in Management Studies at Oxford’s Saïd Business School, Szepan has been named one of Aviation Week & Space Technology’s “40 Under Forty: Rising […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “Learning the Ropes in Blue Water: The Chinese Navy’s Gulf of Aden Deployments Have Borne Worthwhile Lessons in Far-Seas Operations—Lessons that Go Beyond the Antipiracy Mission,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings 139.4 (April 2013): 34–38.
December 2012 marked the fourth anniversary of China’s ongoing antipiracy mission in the Gulf of Aden. Over four-plus […]

Adam P. Liff and Andrew S. Erickson, “Demystifying China’s Defence Spending: Less Mysterious in the Aggregate,” The China Quarterly, available on CJO 2013, doi:10.1017/S0305741013000295; published online by Cambridge University Press 25 March 2013. 
A FirstView version of the forthcoming article online may be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0305741013000295.
This FirstView version of the article, also know as a final Version of Record (VoR), hereby replaces the Accepted Manuscript (AM) [a preliminary version of the article], the contents of which differ slightly and […]

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 21 March 2013), RL33153, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf.
Summary
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. The question is of particular importance to […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “China’s Military Development, Beyond the Numbers,” The Diplomat, 12 March 2013.
While reports warn of China’s rising military budget and lack of transparency, numbers and hyped headlines often cloud the bigger picture.
Given China’s rapid rise in all aspects of national power, as well as its reluctance to release specific […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “New Fleet on the Block: China’s Coast Guard Comes Together,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 11 March 2013.
JAPANESE TRANSLATION
In a move with significant implications for territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, the Chinese government announced on Sunday that it plans to centralize bureaucratic […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff, “A Player, but No Superpower,” Foreign Policy, 7 March 2013.
On March 5, at the opening of the National People’s Congress, Beijing announced its official 2013 defense budget: roughly $114.3 billion, a 10.7 percent increase over the previous year and, in nominal terms, nearly four times the official budget a decade […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Military Budget Bump: What it Means,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 5 March 2013.
China revealed its latest official defense budget on Tuesday, projecting a 10.7% increase in funding that would bring the People’s Liberation Army budget to 720.2 billion yuan ($114.3 billion). The increase is neither surprising nor […]

What happened?
Today, on Tuesday 5 March 2013 (Beijing time), China revealed its latest official defense budget: a projected 10.7% increase to 720.2 billion yuan (US $114.3 billion) for 2013.
The English version of the relevant report released at the National People’s Congress, Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China, “Report on the Implementation of […]

Jeremy Page, “China’s Xi Courts Military,” Wall Street Journal, 4 March 2013.
China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, appears to be ingratiating himself with the country’s generals by ring-fencing the defense budget even as economic growth slows….
A national budget to be unveiled Tuesday at the opening of an annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, China’s parliament, […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China Channels Billy Mitchell: Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Alters Region’s Military Geography,” Jamestown Foundation China Brief 13.5 (4 March 2013).
Reprinted as “China Homes in on Pacific Air Supremacy,” Asia Times, 6 March 2013.
China’s DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) is no longer merely an aspiration. Beijing has successfully developed, partially tested and deployed in […]