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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

04 April 2011

Wendell Minnick, Defense News: “China’s New White Paper Hints at Joint Ops”

Wendell Minnick, “China’s New White Paper Hints at Joint Ops,” Defense News, 4 April 2011.
TAIPEI — China’s air force and navy may be emerging from the shadow of the People’s Liberation Army, according to the latest version of China’s biennial defense white paper.


Released March 31 by China’s Information Office of the State Council, the paper […]

04 April 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #31–China Aims to More Than Triple Its Oil & Gas Production in the South China Sea over the Next 10 years

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Aims to More Than Triple Its Oil & Gas Production in the South China Sea over the Next 10 Years,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 31 (3 April 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
New deepwater oil & gas exploration and production will likely complicate the South China Sea maritime security […]

01 April 2011

Adam Segal, Council on Foreign Relations, “China’s National Defense: ‘Intricate and Volatile’”

Adam Segal, “China’s National Defense: ‘Intricate and Volatile’,” Asia Unbound Blog, Council on Foreign Relations, 1 April 2011.
China, in an ongoing bid to be more transparent about its military modernization, released the 2010 defense white paper, China’s National Defense in 2010, this week. …
After a quick reading, two things stand out.  First, as Andrew Erickson […]

01 April 2011

Ed Wong & Jonathan Ansfield, New York Times: “China Lays Out Vision for Its Military”

Edward Wong and Jonathan Ansfield, “China Lays Out Vision for Its Military,” New York Times, 31 March 2011.
BEIJING — The Chinese military said Thursday that while the security situation in Asia and the Pacific was generally stable it was becoming “more intricate and volatile,” with no clear solutions for tension points like the divided Korean […]

31 March 2011

Beijing Issues Latest Defense White Paper “China’s National Defense in 2010”: English/Chinese Full Text, Key Excerpts & Analysis

Full Text (English): Defense White Paper “China’s National Defense in 2010”
Full Text (Chinese):《2010年中国的国防》白皮书
China’s 2010 Defense White Paper follows a pattern by now well-established in these biannual reports on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It offers some new details not present in the previous report, but stops well short of offering the degree of detail that […]

31 March 2011

When Land Powers Look Seaward

Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and Carnes Lord, “When Land Powers Look Seaward,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.4 (April 2011): 18-23.
Japanese translation now available: 大陸国家が海洋を目指す時.
How does a traditional land power like China make the transformation to major maritime player? Andrew Erickson, Lyle Goldstein, and Carnes Lord of the Naval War College suggest that China can draw […]

31 March 2011

Two Vectors, One Navy

Michael McDevitt and Frederic Vellucci, “Two Vectors, One Navy,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.4 (April 2011).
Aside from a strong national defense, world peace is now part of China’s official military mission. Serving both, its fleet could eventually resemble the U.S. Navy.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) development is best understood as proceeding on two separate […]

31 March 2011

A Bogus Asian Pearl

Lieutenant Colonel Daniel J. Kostecka, U.S. Air Force Reserve, “A Bogus Asian Pearl,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.4 (April 2011).
If closely assayed, the port at Gwadar, Pakistan—touted as part of China’s string of maritime gems—loses its luster, looking more like a counterfeit than the real thing.
China’s investment in the construction of the Port of Gwadar […]

31 March 2011

Mao’s ‘Active Defense’ Is Turning Offensive

James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “Mao’s ‘Active Defense’ Is Turning Offensive,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.4 (April 2011).
When Alexander Gardner made this carte de visite at his studio in Washington on 5 February 1865, President Abraham Lincoln had the look of a war-worn leader. It was the last photograph taken of the President before […]

28 March 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #30–The Saudi Arabia of Corn: Reduce U.S. ethanol production and boost corn exports to China to trim the trade deficit and ensure China’s food security

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “The Saudi Arabia of Corn: Reduce U.S. Ethanol Production and Boost Corn Exports to China to Trim the Trade Deficit and Ensure China’s Food Security,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 30 (28 March 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
In 2010, the U.S. used roughly 138 million tonnes of corn to produce […]

26 March 2011

Defense and Deterrence in China’s Military Space Strategy

Michael S. Chase, “Defense and Deterrence in China’s Military Space Strategy,” Jamestown China Brief, 11.5 (25 March 2011).
China’s theory of space deterrence may be a work in progress, but Beijing is already developing an impressive array of counter-space systems. Indeed, the capabilities that China is working on go beyond the direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon, […]

26 March 2011

National Committee on U.S.-China Relations Public Intellectuals Program (PIP), 2011-2013–Now Soliciting Applications; 23 April 2011 Deadline

Having participated in the second round of this exceptional program, I could not recommend it more highly! Here is complete application information:
NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON UNITED STATES–CHINA RELATIONS
71 West 23rd Street, 19th Floor, New York, NY 10010-4102   (212) 645-9677   Fax: (212) 645-1695   info@ncuscr.org
Celebrating 45 | Promoting Constructive Engagement Since 1966

Public Intellectuals Program, 2011-2013
Call for […]

24 March 2011

NWC Professors Publish Book on U.S.-China Maritime Relations

“NWC Professors Publish Book on U.S.-China Maritime Relations,” Naval War College Public Affairs, 24 March 2011.
NEWPORT, R.I. – Three members of the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) collaborated on a recently released book titled, “China, the United States, and 21st-Century Sea Power,” which explores areas of mutual maritime interest between the […]

23 March 2011

“Chinese Sources Discuss the ASBM Threat to the U.S. Navy”–Naval War College Presentation–Full-Length Video Available

Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese Sources Discuss the ASBM Threat to the U.S. Navy,” presented at China Maritime Studies Institute Lecture of Opportunity, Naval War College, 21 March 2011.
Click here for an adaptive version of the video on Vimeo, as well as the latest sources and analysis.
Click here for a link to videos of this and other CMSI […]

20 March 2011

George F. Will, Washington Post Op-Ed: “The Blue National Soil of China’s Navy”

George F. Will, “The Blue National Soil of China’s Navy,” Washington Post, 18 March 2011.
When some Chinese naval officers crossed the Pacific to visit the Naval War College here on an Atlantic-lapped island, they gazed reverently at a desk used by Capt. Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914). This compliment to America’s preeminent naval strategist has scholars […]

20 March 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #25 Cited by George F. Will in Washington Post Op-Ed: “America’s Navy and the Rise of China”

George F. Will, “America’s Navy and the Rise of China,” Washington Post, 16 March 2011.
NEWPORT, R.I.
Scholars at the Naval War College here probably nodded in vigorous agreement with a recent lecture delivered at another military institution 130 miles away. Speaking at West Point to leaders of tomorrow’s Army, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that “any […]

15 March 2011

The Year of the Tiger: China’s Spy Satellite Surge in 2010

Ian Easton, “The Year of the Tiger: China’s Spy Satellite Surge in 2010,” AsiaEye, 14 March 2011.

… China made a key breakthrough in 2010 with the launch of the three-satellite Yaogan 9 constellation, reported to be a Naval Ocean Surveillance System (NOSS), capable of using time difference of arrival techniques to triangulate and target […]

14 March 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #29: India Plays Catch-up with China: Asia’s titans boost 2011 defense budgets

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “India Plays Catch-up with China: Asia’s Titans Boost 2011 Defense Budgets,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 29 (14 March 2011).
Air and naval implications of India’s higher spending and evolving strategic priorities.
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China announced on 5 March 2011 that it would boost defense spending by 12.7% in 2011 […]

11 March 2011

Uddipan Mukherjee, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi: “The Chinese J-20 and its Ramifications”

Uddipan Mukherjee, “The Chinese J-20 and its Ramifications,” Article No. 1751 (New Delhi: Centre for Land Warfare Studies, 2 February 2011).
…The Chinese manoeuvre was obviously intended towards USA. To synchronise the test with Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ visit was too much of a coincidence. …
On top of this, Hu Jintao’s statement that he was kept […]