Andrew S. Erickson

Steve LeVine, “The Weekly Wrap — Jan. 27, 2012,” The Oil and the Glory (Blog), Foreign Policy, 27 January 2012.
… Iranian heavy crude anyone? Why don’t Russia and China go along with Western oil sanctions against Iran? One reason is that companies from both countries stand to profit handsomely once the crackdown begins, write Gabe Collins […]

Robert Cookson, “China: Digger Sales in the Ditch,” BeyondBrics Blog, Financial Times, 27 January 2012.
How worried should investors be about a slowdown in China? According to the latest GDP statistics, China’s economy expanded 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, confounding those who had been predicting a “hard landing” for the country.
But other […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Chinese Traders Poised to Profit From Iran Oil Embargo,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 26 January 2012.
Europe’s decision to embargo Iranian oil exports is strategically sound, since a nuclear-armed Iran is in no one’s interest. Yet, policymakers are overlooking how an embargo may strategically reshape the […]

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “Domestic Politics will Buffet US-China Relations in 2012,” China-US Focus, 25 January 2012.
China and the U.S. represent each other’s single most important foreign relationship, yet also each other’s broadest array of foreign policy challenges. While interdependent, since the fall of the Soviet Union they have lacked a common external danger […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Year of The Water Dragon: 12 Chinese Maritime Developments to Look for in 2012,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 23 January 2012.
China has now entered the Year of the Dragon. According to traditional geomancy, for the first time since 1952, the year will be associated […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China’s New Strategic Target: Arctic Minerals,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 18 January 2012.
As policymakers in Washington focus on China’s expanding presence in Africa and growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean region, Danish diplomatic assistance is opening the gate for China […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “The U.S. Security Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region,” in Security Outlook of the Asia-Pacific Countries and Its Implications for the Defense Sector, NIDS Joint Research Series 6 (Tokyo: National Institute for Defense Studies, 2011), 81-121.
Having difficulty accessing the full text of this chapter? Download a cached copy here.
The future for the U.S. and […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “Digging In: Earthmover Sales Reflect Risks to China’s Economic Growth,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 52 (17 January 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©

Earthmover sales are a useful economic indicator because China’s construction and fixed asset-driven economy is very heavy equipment-intensive. Also, construction machines are not a speculative asset in the way copper and […]

This article appears designed to send a strong, clear message, and merits very careful reading, analysis, and reflection. It is accompanied by a photograph of DF-21C conventional ballistic missiles, which is one type of an potent variety of long-range strike weapons that China is developing and deploying.
Thanks to Prof. Michael Chase, Naval War College, for directing me […]

No serious survey of strategic analysis on China is complete without reading Taylor’s detailed scholarly publications. His new website makes this easier to do than ever. I recommend that everyone take a look today! You might especially enjoy some of his research concerning the South China Sea.
For anyone who hasn’t met Taylor at his frequent […]

The 2011 ROC National Defense Report has confirmed that “a small quantity of” DF-21D ASBMs “were produced and deployed in 2010,” thereby (in the report’s view) “increasing the difficulty of military maneuvers in the region for the U.S. Army.”
Now a key question remains: what are the missile’s specific capabilities? Unfortunately, open sources do not yet […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China’s 2012 Challenges,” The Diplomat, 8 January 2012.
China enters the New Year confronting challenges and opportunities that will be shaped in turn by how its government and populace respond to them. Here outlined are twelve key items and issues that will help define 2012 for China, both at […]

David C. Gompert and Phillip C. Saunders, Paradox of Power: Sino-American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability (Washington, DC: National Defense University, December 2011).
Excerpt from the Executive Summary:
The United States and China each have or will soon have the ability to inflict grave harm upon the other by nuclear attack, attacks on satellites, or […]

Phillip C. Saunders and Joshua K. Wiseman, Buy, Build, or Steal: China’s Quest for Advanced Military Aviation Technologies, China Strategic Perspectives 4 (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, December 2011).
Executive Summary
Although China continues to lag approximately two decades behind the world’s most sophisticated air forces in terms of its ability to develop and produce fighter […]

Third Summer Training Workshop on the Relationship Between National Security and Technology in China
July 9-20, 2012
This two-week workshop examines the relationship between national security, technology, innovation, and China’s rise as a world power. Of central interest is how China is mobilizing and applying its economic, political, strategic, corporate, financial, intellectual, and scientific capabilities in conjunction […]

This provocative article offers a useful corrective for overly-declinist views of America’s trajectory in the international system, which have been quite fashionable of late in certain quarters.
Michael Beckley, “China’s Century? Why America’s Edge Will Endure,” International Security, 36/3 (Winter 2011/12): 41-78.
Two assumptions dominate current foreign policy debates in the United States and China. First, the […]

Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress,” RL33153, Congressional Research Service, 30 November 2011.
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. Admiral Michael Mullen, then-Chairman of the […]

Thomas P.M. Barnett, “The New Rules: Worried by China’s Rise? Watch Out for its Decline,” World Politics Review, 19 December 2011.
… Having already sounded my own note of pessimism earlier this year regarding the rampant predictions of China’s never-ending linear growth, it is worth revisiting an excellent blog post from August by China Signpost’s Gabe […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Growing Meat Consumption is Driving Corn Imports and Creating a New Strategic Dependency,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 51 (2 January 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China will likely import 3.0 million tonnes of corn in the 2011/12 market year, more than triple the amount it took in 2010/11 (USDA).  As Chinese consumers […]