Hi! Welcome...

Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

01 August 2011

China Defense Blog Praises Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles

China Defense Blog, review of Andrew S. Erickson and Lyle J. Goldstein, eds., Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2011), 31 July 2011.
This fifth installment in the series “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” was the result of the fourth annual conference of the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) hosted by […]

29 July 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #41: How Do the Economic Outputs of China’s 8 Most Productive Cities Compare to Those of U.S. Cities?

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “How Do the Economic Outputs of China’s 8 Most Productive Cities Compare to Those of U.S. Cities?” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 41 (29 July 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Economic discussions involving the U.S. and China often focus on national-level matters such as currency valuation, duties, and trade policy. Yet decisions and […]

28 July 2011

Detailed China Daily Article Indicates Ex-Varyag Approaching Maiden Voyage, Poised to Fulfill Eight-Decade Chinese Dream

Hu Yinan and Li Xiaokun, “Carrier Set for Maiden Voyage,” China Daily, 28 July 2011.
China is making use of an obsolete aircraft carrier that was bought from Ukraine and is being refitted for scientific research and training purposes, a top military spokesman said on Wednesday.
The undated photo released by Xinhua News Agency on Wednesday shows […]

27 July 2011

Owen R. Coté Jr., “Assessing the Undersea Balance Between the U.S. and China”–A Must Read!

This is simply the best net assessment of Sino-American undersea warfare capabilities that I have yet seen. If you only have time to read one study on this vital subject, it should be Coté’s. He offers valuable education on relevant technologies and related principles for all but the most specialized experts.
Owen R. Coté Jr., “Assessing […]

27 July 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #14 Cited in Craig Guthrie, Asia Times, “US in ‘Denial’ over China’s Pacific Strategy”

Craig Guthrie, “US in ‘Denial’ over China’s Pacific Strategy,” Asia Times, 28 July 2011.
HUA HIN, Thailand – Reports that China is close to achieving the same spy satellite capabilities as the United States and making advances in its drone and missile technologies are feeding into US theories that Beijing is pursuing a multi-faceted strategy to […]

27 July 2011

Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles Reviewed by David Axe in Danger Room, Wired.com

David Axe, “China’s Plan to Beat U.S.: Missiles, Missiles and More Missiles,” Danger Room, Wired.com, 27 July 2011.
China is militarily weaker than many people think, especially compared to America. This, despite lots of showy jet prototypes and plenty of other factory-fresh equipment.
But Beijing has a brutally simple — if risky — plan to compensate for […]

26 July 2011

David Axe on J-20 in The Diplomat: “Stealth Fighter or Bomber?”

David Axe, “Stealth Fighter or Bomber?” The Diplomat, 26 July 2011.
A photo from a Chinese aerospace exhibit, posted on an Internet forum, provides the first new evidence in more than six months regarding the role and capabilities of China’s first stealth fighter prototype. …
Many of China’s most impressive weapons developments in recent years, including the […]

25 July 2011

Defending the Fleet from China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile: Naval Deception’s Roles in Sea-Based Missile Defense

Jonathan F. Solomon, Defending the Fleet from China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile: Naval Deception’s Roles in Sea-Based Missile Defense, M.A. thesis, Georgetown University, 15 April 2011.
This thesis project tests the hypothesis that U.S. Navy active missile defenses’ utility against China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) reconnaissance-strike system can be significantly increased when paired with emerging Electronic Warfare (EW) […]

25 July 2011

China, the United States, and 21st Century Sea Power Featured in Seapower Magazine Ship’s Library

Richard R. Burgess, Managing Editor, “Books Detail Chinese Naval Strategy,” Seapower 54.7 (July 2011), 49.
The rise of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is attracting the attention of strategists and scholars who are trying to understand and explain its capabilities and intentions and how they impact the global balance of power. Chinese sea power is […]

21 July 2011

Taiwan 2011 National Defense Report: DF-21D ASBMs “have been produced and deployed in small numbers in 2010”

國防部「國防報告書」編纂委員會 [Ministry of Defense, “National Defense Report” Editorial Board], 中華民國壹百年國防報告書 [Republic of China Centennial 2011 National Defense Report] (Taipei: 國防部 [Ministry of Defense], 2011).
p. 60
ROUGH ENGLISH TRANSLATION:
1. Mainland Chinese Military Capability
4. Second Artillery Strike Capability
Under the guidance of [the] “both conventional and nuclear missions” [concept], [the Second Artillery] continues to develop MIRVed intercontinental ballistic missiles, […]

20 July 2011

China Defense Industry Faces Homemade Engine Troubles

Robert Karniol, “China Defense Industry Faces Homemade Engine Troubles,” China Post, 20 July 2011.
SINGAPORE — …China’s defense industry can … design, develop and produce propulsion systems for relatively simple military platforms — certain transport aircraft, patrol boats, some types of main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers. But high-performance combat aircraft, destroyers and similarly demanding […]

17 July 2011

J. Michael Cole, Taipei Times: “Official Confirms ‘Carrier Killer’ is Being Developed”

J. Michael Cole, “Official Confirms ‘Carrier Killer’ is Being Developed,” Taipei Times, 14 July 2011.
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde (陳炳德) confirmed earlier this week that China was developing the Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the first Chinese official to publicly state that the missile is in development. …
Although […]

17 July 2011

Greg Torode, South China Morning Post: “‘Carrier Killer’ Missile May Give China Powerful Edge”

Greg Torode, “‘Carrier Killer’ Missile May Give China Powerful Edge,” South China Morning Post, 15 July 2011.
While PLA chief Chen Bingde’s remarks about China’s aircraft carrier development hogged attention during the visit by his US counterpart this week, it was his confirmation that the military is developing a missile able to hit carriers that has […]

17 July 2011

Bradley Perrett, Aviation Week & Space Technology: “China Details Anti-ship Missile Plans”

Bradley Perrett, “China Details Anti-ship Missile Plans,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, 15 July 2011.
For more than a century, surface warships have been struggling to survive against mines, submarines, aircraft and, more recently, cruise missiles. Now China’s rapid development of a sophisticated anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) raises the threat to a new level.
The U.S. Navy, […]

13 July 2011

China’s Jet Engine Future

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Jet Engine Future,” The Diplomat, 13 July 2011.
Following is a guest entry from Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, co-founders of China Sign Post.
China’s military jet engine capability is increasing at a rapid pace, with implications not only for China’s independent military capabilities, but also for the global defence […]

12 July 2011

General Chen Bingde, PLA Chief of General Staff, Becomes First Chinese Official to Confirm Publicly that “2,700 km-Range” DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) is in Development; “Not Operational Yet” by PLA Definition

THIS POST HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO ELIMINATE LIKELY INACCURATE RANGE CLAIM BY CHINA DAILY; CLICK HERE FOR A COMPLETE UPDATE.
According to an article by China’s official Xinhua News Agency entitled “China’s DF-21D Missile is Still Undergoing Research” (陈炳德: 东风21D导弹还在研究中), on 11 July 2011 PLA Chief of General Staff General Chen Bingde became the first Chinese government […]

12 July 2011

China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Reaches Equivalent of “Initial Operational Capability” (IOC)—Where It’s Going and What it Means

First posted 30 December 2010; updated subsequently with latest analysis and sources.
For an explanation of Chinese ASBM development and its larger implications, see the China Maritime Studies Institute Lecture of Opportunity, “Chinese Sources Discuss the ASBM Threat to the U.S. Navy,” that I presented at the Naval War College on 21 March 2011.

For detailed analysis of Admiral […]

11 July 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #40–12 in ’12: Strategic Challenges Facing the U.S. and China as the 2012 Political Season Approaches

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “12 in ’12: Strategic Challenges Facing the U.S. and China as the 2012 Political Season Approaches,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 40 (11 July 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Executive Summary:
Challenges Washington faces that will affect relations with China
1) Adapting to a sometimes contradictory “frenemies” type relationship with China.
2) Accepting […]

10 July 2011

More Firepower for the Navy? Convert!

Michael G. Gallagher, “More Firepower for the Navy? Convert!” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.7 (July 2011): 22-25.
To offset the vulnerability of its aircraft carrier force and prepare for a possible military conflict with China, the U.S. Navy should build a dedicated class of modified cruise-missile submarines based on the stealthy Virginia-class template.
The May 2010 report […]