Andrew S. Erickson

Jonathan F. Solomon, Defending the Fleet from China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile: Naval Deception’s Roles in Sea-Based Missile Defense, M.A. thesis, Georgetown University, 15 April 2011.
This thesis project tests the hypothesis that U.S. Navy active missile defenses’ utility against China’s Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) reconnaissance-strike system can be significantly increased when paired with emerging Electronic Warfare (EW) […]

Richard R. Burgess, Managing Editor, “Books Detail Chinese Naval Strategy,” Seapower 54.7 (July 2011), 49.
The rise of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is attracting the attention of strategists and scholars who are trying to understand and explain its capabilities and intentions and how they impact the global balance of power. Chinese sea power is […]

國防部「國防報告書」編纂委員會 [Ministry of Defense, “National Defense Report” Editorial Board], 中華民國壹百年國防報告書 [Republic of China Centennial 2011 National Defense Report] (Taipei: 國防部 [Ministry of Defense], 2011).
p. 60
ROUGH ENGLISH TRANSLATION:
1. Mainland Chinese Military Capability
4. Second Artillery Strike Capability
Under the guidance of [the] “both conventional and nuclear missions” [concept], [the Second Artillery] continues to develop MIRVed intercontinental ballistic missiles, […]

Robert Karniol, “China Defense Industry Faces Homemade Engine Troubles,” China Post, 20 July 2011.
SINGAPORE — …China’s defense industry can … design, develop and produce propulsion systems for relatively simple military platforms — certain transport aircraft, patrol boats, some types of main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers. But high-performance combat aircraft, destroyers and similarly demanding […]

J. Michael Cole, “Official Confirms ‘Carrier Killer’ is Being Developed,” Taipei Times, 14 July 2011.
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Chief of General Staff Chen Bingde (陳炳德) confirmed earlier this week that China was developing the Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the first Chinese official to publicly state that the missile is in development. …
Although […]

Greg Torode, “‘Carrier Killer’ Missile May Give China Powerful Edge,” South China Morning Post, 15 July 2011.
While PLA chief Chen Bingde’s remarks about China’s aircraft carrier development hogged attention during the visit by his US counterpart this week, it was his confirmation that the military is developing a missile able to hit carriers that has […]

Bradley Perrett, “China Details Anti-ship Missile Plans,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, 15 July 2011.
For more than a century, surface warships have been struggling to survive against mines, submarines, aircraft and, more recently, cruise missiles. Now China’s rapid development of a sophisticated anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) raises the threat to a new level.
The U.S. Navy, […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Jet Engine Future,” The Diplomat, 13 July 2011.
Following is a guest entry from Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, co-founders of China Sign Post.
China’s military jet engine capability is increasing at a rapid pace, with implications not only for China’s independent military capabilities, but also for the global defence […]

THIS POST HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO ELIMINATE LIKELY INACCURATE RANGE CLAIM BY CHINA DAILY; CLICK HERE FOR A COMPLETE UPDATE.
According to an article by China’s official Xinhua News Agency entitled “China’s DF-21D Missile is Still Undergoing Research” (陈炳德: 东风21D导弹还在研究中), on 11 July 2011 PLA Chief of General Staff General Chen Bingde became the first Chinese government […]

First posted 30 December 2010; updated subsequently with latest analysis and sources.
For an explanation of Chinese ASBM development and its larger implications, see the China Maritime Studies Institute Lecture of Opportunity, “Chinese Sources Discuss the ASBM Threat to the U.S. Navy,” that I presented at the Naval War College on 21 March 2011.

For detailed analysis of Admiral […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “12 in ’12: Strategic Challenges Facing the U.S. and China as the 2012 Political Season Approaches,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 40 (11 July 2011).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Executive Summary:
Challenges Washington faces that will affect relations with China
1) Adapting to a sometimes contradictory “frenemies” type relationship with China.
2) Accepting […]

Michael G. Gallagher, “More Firepower for the Navy? Convert!” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.7 (July 2011): 22-25.
To offset the vulnerability of its aircraft carrier force and prepare for a possible military conflict with China, the U.S. Navy should build a dedicated class of modified cruise-missile submarines based on the stealthy Virginia-class template.
The May 2010 report […]

Lt. Cdr. Matthew Harper, “Chinese Missiles and the Walmart Factor,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, 137.7 (July 2011): 16-21.
Scenarios of a military conflict with a rising China are pointless if they leave out a glaring detail—the global economy.
Multiple news outlets recently carried stories about a Chinese antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) that could target U.S. aircraft carriers […]

Abraham M. Denmark, Andrew S. Erickson, and Gabriel Collins; Jean-Clément Nau, translator, “Faut-il avoir peur du nouveau porte-avions chinois?” [Should We Be Afraid of China’s New Aircraft Carrier? Not yet.], Foreign Policy, 5 July 2011.
For original English-language article, see Abraham M. Denmark, Andrew S. Erickson, and Gabriel Collins, “Should We Be Afraid of China’s New […]

Michael D. Swaine, America’s Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011).
Michael D. Swaine is a senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment’s Asia Program. The author of more than ten monographs on security policy in the region, Swaine is one of the most prominent U.S. analysts […]

Dave Majumdar, “China Nears Jet Engine Breakthrough: Report,” Defense News, 30 June 2011.
In a paper released earlier this week, analysts at China Signpost argue that the Chinese are on the verge of making a breakthrough in jet engine technology, traditionally one of that nation’s weak points in developing modern fighters.

“We estimate that based on […]

Michael Richardson, “China Flexes Maritime Muscle to ‘Win war Without Fighting’,” Canberra Times, 29 June 2011.
More ships – including aircraft carriers – are entering the Chinese fleet.

As China prepares to start sea trials of its first aircraft carrier, possibly as early as this Friday to coincide with the 90th anniversary of the ruling Communist […]

Amando Doronila, “China’s Worst-Kept Secret Naval Weapon,” Philippine Daily Inquirer, 28 June 2011.
SINGAPORE—ON June 8, the Hong Kong Commercial Daily News reported that Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), had confirmed that China was building an aircraft carrier, marking the first acknowledgement of the ship’s existence by the country’s secretive […]

Our Overall Thoughts: China’s ‘Starter Carrier’
A newly-wed couple wants a ‘starter home,’ a new great power wants a ‘starter carrier.’ Before foreign strategists start hyperventilating about the “beginning of the end,” a deep breath is needed. China’s ‘starter carrier’ is of very limited military utility, and will primarily serve to confer prestige on a rising […]