01 October 2013

Risks for U.S. in Asia with Shutdown Soap Opera

Andrew S. Erickson, “Risks for U.S. in Asia with Shutdown Soap Opera,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 1 October 2013.
As a dangerous game of budget roulette unfolds in the U.S., it behooves all concerned Americans and their representatives to remember that the world continues its rapid evolution and will not wait for Washington to […]

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01 October 2013

Lee Kuan Yew’s Wisdom for Washington: Asian Geopolitics Won’t Shut Down with U.S. Government

As a dangerous game of budget roulette unfolds, it behooves all concerned Americans and their representatives to remember that the world continues its rapid evolution and will not wait for Washington to get its act together. With respect to the most dynamic and important region of the globe, the insights of Singapore’s founding father Lee […]

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01 October 2013

Sunk Costs: China and the Pirates

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “Sunk Costs: China and the Pirates,” The Diplomat, 26 September 2013.
Maritime piracy is one of many non-traditional security challenges that confront China and other states in the 21st century. After flourishing for over two decades, why has piracy elicited a greater response from China than have other security […]

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09 September 2013

Spring Training for the Big Leagues

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “Spring Training for the Big Leagues,” Guest Blog Post for Elizabeth C. Economy, Asia Unbound, Council on Foreign Relations, 9 September 2013.
I am delighted to introduce the first of a four-part blog series that will be running through December on the PLA Navy by Andrew Erickson, an associate […]

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09 September 2013

China’s ‘Carrier-Killer’ Was Born in the Balkans: The DF-21D is China’s Answer to America’s Carriers, With an Unusual Origin in the Kosovo War

Robert Beckhusen, “China’s ‘Carrier-Killer’ Was Born in the Balkans: The DF-21D is China’s Answer to America’s Carriers, With an Unusual Origin in the Kosovo War,” War is Boring, 9 September 2013.
… That’s the history according to a new book from Andrew Erickson, a specialist on the Chinese military at the U.S. Naval War College. The […]

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23 August 2013

Updated Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report—Ronald O’Rourke, “Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 9 August 2013), R42784.
Summary
This report presents policy and oversight issues for Congress arising from (1) maritime territorial disputes involving China in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS) and (2) an additional dispute […]

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22 August 2013

Latest Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report—Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 8 August 2013), RL33153.
Summary
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. The question is of particular importance to […]

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06 August 2013

China Carrier Demo Module Highlights Surging Navy

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China Carrier Demo Module Highlights Surging Navy,” The National Interest, 6 August 2013.
Shanghai’s Changxing Island Shipyard, already home to both conventional-submarine and civil production, now appears to be preparing to construct China’s first indigenous aircraft carrier. Internet and satellite photos have emerged of a hull module whose limited dimensions suggest that it represents a […]

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01 August 2013

The Influence of Airpower Upon Asian History

Robert Farley, “The Influence of Airpower Upon Asian History,” The Diplomat, 31 July 2013.
A recent University Press of Kentucky edited volume, The Influence of Airpower Upon History, attempts to evaluate to impact of airpower since the beginning of manned, powered flight. The book largely avoids theorizing about airpower and instead examines how statesmen have used airpower as a […]

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19 July 2013

China Issues its Own “Report on U.S. Military Power 2012” & “Report on Japanese Military Power 2012”

On 8 May 2013, in reviewing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)’s annual report on Chinese military developments, I noted that “China itself needs to know how its military progress is being perceived, even as it remains free to publish whatever reports of its own it might wish.”
Now China has indeed done so, through the […]

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19 July 2013

More Signs that China May Be Facing an S-Curved Trajectory

It’s always worth considering Patrick Chovanec’s cogent analysis. And when Howard Schneider and Paul Krugman raise similar concerns, you can’t afford not to pay attention.
Brad Plumer, “A Very Clear Explanation of China’s Economic Woes,” The Washington Post, 16 July 2013.
Howard Schneider, “IMF Labels China’s Economic Policy ‘Unsustainable’ As Trade Talks Are Suspended,” The Washington Post, 17 July […]

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12 July 2013

Simplified Chinese Translation Now Available: “Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy ‘Assassin’s Mace’ Capability”

Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray, Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy ‘Assassin’s Mace’ Capability, Naval War College China Maritime Study 3 (June 2009).
Chinese translation (simplified character version/简体版) now available: Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray, “中国水雷作战: 中国海军的「杀手锏,” 美海军战院中国海事研究第3号 (2009 六月), translation by苏文启 [Su Wen-Chi], ROC Navy officer (retired).
Chinese translation (traditional character version/繁體版/繁体版) likewise […]

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12 July 2013

Latest Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report—Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 5 July 2013), RL33153, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf.
Summary
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. The question is of particular importance to […]

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11 July 2013

Chinese Translation Now Available: “Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy ‘Assassin’s Mace’ Capability”

Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray, Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy ‘Assassin’s Mace’ Capability, Naval War College China Maritime Study 3 (June 2009).
Chinese translation (traditional character/繁體字/繁体字) now available: Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, and William S. Murray, “中國水雷作戰: 中國海軍的「殺手鐧」,” 美海軍戰院中國海事研究第3號 (2009 六月), translation by 蘇文啟 [Su Wen-Chi], ROC Navy officer (retired).
Japanese translation also […]

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11 July 2013

National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) Issues 2013 “Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat” Report

National Air and Space Intelligence Center, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat (Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH, 2013).
Click here to read the full text of the report.
Hans Kristensen’s evaluation can be accessed here.
Issued four years after the previous iteration, this detailed report is to be welcomed. Perhaps due to the vagaries of bureaucratic processes, it […]

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07 July 2013

The Dragon Extends its Reach: Chinese Military Power Goes Global

Larry M. Wortzel, The Dragon Extends its Reach: Chinese Military Power Goes Global (Dulles, VA: Potomac Books, 2013).
China has evolved from a nation with local and regional security interests to a major economic and political power with global interests, investments, and political commitments. It now requires a military that can project itself around the globe, […]

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23 June 2013

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #71—“Counting Cars: Rising Private Automobile Ownership in Chinese Cities Paves Road for Gasoline Demand”

Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Counting Cars: Rising Private Automobile Ownership in Chinese Cities Paves Road for Gasoline Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 71 (24 June 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
“Texas-sized” used to be the benchmark for large-scale car ownership, but “China-sized” is emerging as the new metric. We assembled statistical data for 36 cities […]

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20 June 2013

Latest Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report—Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 April 2013), RL33153, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf.
Summary
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. The question is of particular importance to […]

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10 June 2013

A Statement before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Panel III: “China’s Political and Security Challenges in the Middle East,” “China and the Middle East” hearing, Washington, DC, 6 June 2013

Andrew S. Erickson, A Statement before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Panel III: “China’s Political and Security Challenges in the Middle East,” “China and the Middle East” hearing, Washington, DC, 6 June 2013.
Click here to watch webcast of hearing.
My testimony reflects my personal views and not the policies or estimates of the U.S. Navy or […]

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