Andrew S. Erickson

The Gun, The Knife, The Pen, The Paper, and The Blood…
These are not future John Grisham novels, but rather the essential instruments by which a PRC paramount leader consolidates and holds power:

The Gun: PLA
The Knife: domestic security services
The Pen: propaganda system
The Paper: bureaucracy
The Blood: red families/“princelings”

In this landmark article, the brilliant Jamestown Foundation team explains […]

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In a new echo of U.S. construction of Mulberry Harbors to support the 1944 D-Day Invasion, China recently began construction of 3-5+ (perhaps 7 and counting) Shuiqiao bridge barges at Guangzhou Shipyard International (GSI) Longxue Island shipyard in Guangdong Province, and has now been observed exercising with them—at a nearby beach close to the Southern […]

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Dr. Sarah Kirchberger and CAPT Christopher P. Carlson, USN (Ret.), “Neither Fish Nor Fowl: China’s Development of a Nuclear Battery AIP Submarine,” Center for International Maritime Security (CIMSEC), 22 January 2025.

On September 27, 2024, news broke that a previously unreported new type of Chinese nuclear-powered submarine, dubbed the “Type 041,” had suffered a major mishap […]

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The Department of Defense just released the 2024 China Military Power Report (CMPR)!

Access here the Full Text (cached copy) & Fact Sheet (cached copy).
Rollout at CSIS, 18 December 2024.
Watch rollout webcast on YouTube.

KEY REVELATIONS—MY TAKE:

By CMPR’s suspense date of “early 2024,” China already had over 600 operational nuclear warheads.
All of China’s roughly 400 ICBMs can […]

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As we follow Admiral Miao Hua (苗华)’s fall and watch for more shoes to drop, it’s useful to reflect on Chinese open source methodology more broadly. With the PRC continually tightening up under Xi, the discipline faces rising challenges. Surveying the state of affairs and reviewing past practices from earlier years of PRC isolation offers […]

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Edward Francis, Jennifer Chang, and Ken Allen, The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Type 23 Military Ribbons: Turning Chicken Ribs into Chicken Drumsticks (Vienna, VA: Exovera, 15 August 2024).
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A CACHED COPY.
This report analyzes the PLA’s new “Type 23” military ribbon system, implemented in January, 2023. This comprehensive study examines how the revamped system […]

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Legendary China military analyst Ken Allen provided the following written testimony for USCC to accompany the Commission’s release of his coauthored BluePath Labs report, Personnel of the People’s Liberation Army. It is published, with permission, for the first time here. Click here to download a cached PDF.

Kenneth W. Allen
Independent Consultant, China Military Analyst
Written testimony for […]

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The RAND Corporation is hiring two China-specific positions: a China researcher position for mid-career or senior researchers and a China analyst position for early career folks.
China Defense & Security Researcher (mid-career/senior position)

Position description
RAND advises a variety of national security clients, including a wide array of DoD organizations, U.S. allies and partners, and foundations, on policy-level […]

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Important new book! Cutting-edge contributions from innovative authors on critical topics of concern—could hardly be more relevant today!
Book from the People’s Liberation Army Conference

China’s Military Decision-making in Times of Crisis and Conflict

Edited by Roy D. Kamphausen
September 26, 2023 // The National Bureau of Asian Research

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD FULL-TEXT PDF.

China’s Military Decision-making in Times […]

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Apply here to become first-ever Research Professor of China Military Studies at The United States Army War College’s brand new China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC)! CLSC will be similar to the centers at other professional military educational institutions such as National Defense University, Air University, and the Naval War College.

By bringing cutting-edge insights regarding PRC […]

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Honored to meet President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 and 2023—bookends to a historic presidency.

It was wonderful to discuss key issues with a great leader and hear her insights on 29 June 2023 as part of the Wilson Center’s week-long delegation to Taiwan.

Official news release:

President Tsai Meets Delegation from the Wilson Center
29 June 2023
On the afternoon […]

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A comprehensive compendium of PLAN, PLAAF, CCG ships & aircraft + missiles/weapons & sensors from 1955 to present, as found nowhere else… Consult this unparalleled unclassified reference for analysis or gaming today! 
Larry Bond, Chris Carlson, and Peter Grining, eds., China’s Navy: Ships and Aircraft of the People’s Republic of China, 1955 – 2021 (Admiralty Trilogy Group, […]

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Only from the Admiralty Trilogy Group… Check out these unique, fully updated Soviet/Russian orders of battle from 1955 to the present: (1) naval ships and (2) military aircraft! Consult these unparalleled unclassified references for analysis or war gaming today!
First, a comprehensive compendium of Moscow’s naval ships and associated missiles/weapons & sensors from seven decades ago […]

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Great news! The U.S. Army War College is establishing a China military studies center at Carlisle Barracks, PA. The center will be similar to those at other professional military educational institutions such as National Defense University, Air University, and the Naval War College.
The China Landpower Studies Center will uniquely focus on the study of the […]

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Updated with non-substantive copy edits 26 December 2022
THE PENTAGON’S 2022 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT: MY SUMMARY

XI’S VISION MATERIALIZING—RELENTLESS RAMP-UP TOWARD 2027 & BEYOND

ANDREW S. ERICKSON
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report: My Summary,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 December 2022.

A printable version of my summary is available here.

Document analyzed: Office […]

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My initial take:
This year’s report documents a relentless ramp-up of PRC military capabilities toward 2027 and beyond. Despite having over 400 nuclear warheads already, and expanding at a rate that would reach 1,500 by 2035, Beijing refuses to acknowledge its buildup, let alone engage in arms control discussions. We are seeing the dangerous results of […]

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This post is under construction. Please check back soon for new content.
Meanwhile, if you haven’t already, please be sure to examine the superb new edited volume detailed below…
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Sarah Kirchberger, Svenja Sinjen, and Nils Wörmer, eds., Russia-China Relations: Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals? (New York, NY: Springer, 2022).
Click here to access full-text PDF.

This open access book examines Russia-China […]

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Sarah Kirchberger, Svenja Sinjen, and Nils Wörmer, eds., Russia-China Relations: Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals? (New York, NY: Springer, 2022).
Click here to access full-text PDF.

This open access book examines Russia-China relations across a variety of civilian and military areas of cooperation. It provides an up-to-date assessment of strategic cooperation fields between China and Russia; examines the potential […]

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Li Weichao, “China Launches Third Aircraft Carrier,” Xinhua, 17 June 2022.

Photo taken on June 17, 2022 shows the launching ceremony of China’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, in east China’s Shanghai. The carrier, named after Fujian Province, was completely designed and built by the country. (Xinhua/Li Gang) 
SHANGHAI, June 17 (Xinhua) — China launched its third […]

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