Archive | Blog Posts

13 May 2022

Must-Read in International Security! “Pier Competitor: China’s Power Position in Global Ports”

Now making big waves… I’ve strongly encouraged and am deeply familiar with this body of work. Profs. Isaac Kardon and Wendy Leutert’s well-placed article is a cutting-edge piece of scholarship that elucidates important areas of China and its role in our world today. It probes the PRC “Port-folio” around the world with unique academic methodological discipline […]

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18 March 2022

China’s Energy Import Dependency: Potential Impacts on Sourcing Practices, Infrastructure Decisions & Military Posture

Check out this must-read testimony on China’s energy import dependency from Gabe Collins at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy! It’s part of a timely U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission (USCC) hearing on PRC energy issues…
Watch the webcast, read the text, or just scroll through Gabe’s 16 data-rich exhibits—and I guarantee you’ll come […]

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06 March 2022

Meanwhile—China to Raise *Official* Annual Defense Budget by 7.1% to $230 Billion (1.45 trillion yuan)

China to raise military budget by 7.1% this year
By Zhao Lei | China Daily | Updated: 2022-03-06 14:10

China plans to raise its annual defense budget by 7.1 percent to 1.45 trillion yuan ($230 billion) for the 2022 fiscal year, its seventh-straight year of single-digit growth, according to a draft budget plan unveiled on Saturday.
The figures were […]

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27 February 2022

Unique Reference! Russia’s Aircraft: Russian Military Aircraft, 1955 – Present

A comprehensive order of battle containing all aircraft in service over the previous seven decades right up to now in Moscow’s Naval Aviation (AVMF), Military Air Force (VVS), Air Defense Forces (PVO), and Long-Range Aviation (DA). Use this unique and timely unclassified reference for open source research and war gaming!
Larry Bond, Chris Carlson, and Peter […]

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27 February 2022

Timely! Russia’s Navy: The Soviet and Russian Navy, 1955 – Present Day

A comprehensive compendium of Moscow’s naval ships and associated missiles/weapons & sensors from seven decades ago to right now, as you’ve never seen them before… Consult this unparalleled unclassified reference for analysis or war gaming today! 
Larry Bond, Chris Carlson, and Peter Grining, eds., Russia’s Navy: The Soviet and Russian Navy, 1955 – Present Day (Admiralty Trilogy Group, […]

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24 February 2022

Putin’s Ukraine Invasion Underscores: Nuclear Posture Review Must Preserve (Extended) Deterrence 100%, Avoid Dangerous “Sole Purpose” Language, etc.

Bottom line up front: Virtue signaling is no substitute for deterrence signaling!
Andrew S. Erickson, “Putin’s Ukraine Invasion Underscores: Nuclear Posture Review Must Preserve (Extended) Deterrence 100%, Avoid Dangerous ‘Sole Purpose’ Language, etc.,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 24 February 2022.
As tonight’s unfolding Ukraine tragedy underscores only too starkly, the Biden Administration must preserve deterrence, including […]

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23 February 2022

In Loving Memory: Admiral Eric McVadon, 1936–2022

Rear Admiral Eric A. McVadon, Jr. was a Naval Aviator, Vietnam War veteran, Commanding Officer of Naval Station Keflavik (Iceland), and celebrated U.S. Defense Attaché in Beijing (1990–92). With his deep experience, thoughtfulness, and infectious enthusiasm, he was a valued mentor to many China Hands.

True to form, he was also a great friend and supporter […]

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19 December 2021

PRC Pursuit of Xi’s 2027 “Centennial Military Building Goal” (建军一百年奋斗目标): Sources & Analysis

Updated text added 18 April 2023:

Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022 (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 29 November 2022), pp. 37–38:
“…the new 2027 goal…did likely shift the PLA’s development of certain capabilities within the categories of the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization. If realized, this achievement […]

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05 November 2021

The Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report: My Summary

Updated 7 November 2021
The Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report: My Summary
Worth Waiting For—Now No Time to Waste!
Andrew S. Erickson
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report: My Summary,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 5 November 2021.

Click here for a printable PDF version.
Despite coming out late in the year, the Pentagon’s 2021 […]

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03 November 2021

Worth Waiting For—But No Time to Waste! My Take on the Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report

Despite coming out late in the year, the Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report (CMPR) was worth the wait!
Since the first edition in 2000, the annual CMPR issued by the Department of Defense (DoD) has offered government-verified data on China’s meteoric military rise simply unfindable or unconfirmable anywhere else.
Among today’s top takeaways: in a shocking […]

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18 October 2021

Remembering Colin Powell: A Meeting in China

I am forever honored to have met Colin Powell, then Secretary of State, during his July 28–29, 2001 visit to Beijing, China.

[PHOTO: Andrew S. Erickson and fellow interns with Secretary of State Colin Powell, U.S. Embassy Beijing, July 2001. Newly-arrived Ambassador Clark T. “Sandy” Randt Jr. (雷德) stands in background.]
Powell quietly commanded respect—exuding maximum authority […]

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03 October 2021

Unique Order of Battle!—China’s Navy: Ships & Aircraft of the PRC, 1955–2021

A comprehensive compendium of PLAN, PLAAF, CCG ships & aircraft + missiles/weapons & sensors from 1955 to present, as you’ve never seen them before… Consult this unparalleled unclassified reference for analysis or gaming today! 
Larry Bond, Chris Carlson, and Peter Grining, eds., China’s Navy: Ships and Aircraft of the People’s Republic of China, 1955 – 2021 (Admiralty […]

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16 August 2021

Mind The Gap: How China’s Civilian Shipping Could Enable a Taiwan Invasion

Timely, relevant, and predictive analysis by brilliant analyst Thomas Shugart. Best read together with (1) the pathbreaking, widely-cited article by Conor Kennedy that he mentions, and (2) the Quick Look summary of the CMSI Conference to which both superstars made critical contributions. I’ve linked all three pieces here; please scroll down to access all now!
Thomas Shugart, […]

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04 August 2021

BZ! Prof. Ryan Martinson Wins Naval War College Civilian Faculty Research Excellence Award

Established in 2017, the Naval War College (NWC) Civilian Faculty Research Excellence Award is presented annually to the faculty member of the College who has exhibited the highest quality of achievement through research on behalf of the College over the preceding three years. This year, at Monday’s Faculty Cloister in Newport, RI, my China Maritime Studies […]

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31 July 2021

“China Is Using Tibetans as Agents of Empire in the Himalayas”—Part 2 in Pathbreaking Foreign Policy Series

It’s not often that an article opens up a major window into a vital, under-studied area. Leading Tibetan scholar Robert Barnett and colleagues do so by probing acutely the intersection of geopolitics with the lives of those compelled to serve in frontline positions by Party persistence. This must-read piece, like its predecessor in a two-part […]

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19 July 2021

Ramping the Strait: Quick and Dirty Solutions to Boost Amphibious Lift

Conor Kennedy, “Ramping the Strait: Quick and Dirty Solutions to Boost Amphibious Lift,” Jamestown China Brief 21.14 (16 July 2021).

Introduction
The threat of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) using military force to coerce or perhaps launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan has received significant attention in the past year. Meanwhile, the recent commissioning of the PLA […]

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12 July 2021

The Middle Kingdom Returns to the Sea, While America Turns Its Back—How China Came to Dominate the Global Maritime Industry, and the Implications for the World

A fascinating, thought-provoking piece! It opens a critical window on past, present, and possible futures of America’s merchant marine and its manifold PRC counterpart efforts. China clearly views the commercial component of state-supported shipbuilding, transportation, and seapower as critical to comprehensive capabilities. How much less complete in its approach can America afford to be? Anyone […]

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23 June 2021

Jude Blanchette in Foreign Affairs—“Xi’s Gamble: The Race to Consolidate Power & Stave Off Disaster”—Plus My Diagnosis & Recs w/ Gabe Collins

Jude Blanchette, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), hits the nail on the head! Xi has put CCP-directed policy on a highest-possible-stakes fast track for the 15 years between now and 2035, when he will be 82:
“In order to seize temporary advantages & forestall domestic challenges, Xi […]

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14 June 2021

Exceptionally Enlightening Hearing—“The United States’ Strategic Competition with China”! SASC Testimony from Matt Pottinger, Evan Medeiros, Sheena Chestnut Greitens & Bonnie Glaser

Worth watching and reading in full! The Senate Armed Services Committee had the good sense to invite a varied set of top-caliber experts to offer complementary assessments. Among their many contributions, Pottinger frames, Medeiros contextualizes, Greitens situates, and Glaser recommends…

Hearing on “The United States’ Strategic Competition with China”
Senate Armed Services Committee
Date: Tuesday, June 8, 2021
Time: 09:30 AM
Location: Dirksen […]

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