Andrew S. Erickson

Now in its 142nd (!) iteration, this periodically-updated Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 8 February 2023).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Putin’s Ukraine Invasion: Turbocharging Sino-Russian Collaboration in Energy, Maritime Security, and Beyond?” Naval War College Review 75.4 (Autumn 2022): 91–126.
Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine will continue to send shock waves across the shores of maritime Asia for years, with unfolding impacts on ecosystems inhabited by oil barrels, gas pipelines, […]

KEY POINTS (my *best attempted* tldr summary—be sure to see transcript below for the actual *authoritative* wording, with emphases & links added by me):

Full recovery process underway, much material and data to come… Stay tuned!
Extensive revelations are forthcoming from both the spy balloon’s flight/activities and its debris concerning its operations, capabilities, transmission capabilities, etc.
Four previous balloons […]

Key point: “We spoke directly with Chinese officials through multiple channels, but rather than address their intrusion into our airspace, the PRC put out an explanation that lacked any credibility.”
Also: The U.S. government continues to learn about this latest spy balloon and its collection efforts and capabilities—more to come!

TRANSCRIPT
Senior Defense Official and Senior Military Official Hold […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “How Gray-Zone Ops in the Yellow Sea Could Trigger a Maritime Crisis,” Harvard Fairbank Center Blog Post, 31 January 2023.
A new book examines the geopolitical risks near the Korean Peninsula
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A FULL-TEXT PDF.

The body of water dividing the People’s Republic of China and the Koreas has inherent geostrategic importance […]

The Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute is proud to publish with the Naval Institute a new paperback edition of the most operationally- and tactically- cutting-edge volume in our “Studies in Chinese Maritime Development” series to date!
We’ve shared our findings with all who expressed interest, up to and including the Secretary of Defense. Now you can examine them […]

Scott Bentley, The Maritime Fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia and Malaysia Respond to China’s Creeping Expansion in the South China Sea, Naval War College China Maritime Study 17 (January 2023).

Dr. Bentley is a civilian analyst for the U.S. Department of the Navy, but the views expressed herein are those of the author and do not […]

Impactful encore publication by J. Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer. Among his Indo-Pacific assignments, he formerly served as Assistant U.S. Naval Attaché in Beijing—and graciously hosted me and my CMSI colleagues there. Check out the revealing accompanying graphics: 26 tables, 37 figures!
J. Michael Dahm, More Chinese Ferry Tales: China’s Use of Civilian Shipping in Military […]

2023 looks to be a rough year. Heavy seas ahead… Start it right by consulting the latest edition of Modern Chinese Maritime Forces—just released today!
This is the most comprehensive unclassified, open source PRC sea forces order of battle, data, and ship drawings available anywhere. It tracks the world’s most-numerous Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia […]

Updated with non-substantive copy edits 26 December 2022
THE PENTAGON’S 2022 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT: MY SUMMARY

XI’S VISION MATERIALIZING—RELENTLESS RAMP-UP TOWARD 2027 & BEYOND

ANDREW S. ERICKSON
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report: My Summary,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 December 2022.

A printable version of my summary is available here.

Document analyzed: Office […]

Check it out! Don’t miss the China government naval/maritime ship recognition guide graphic that the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) just released! First time this unparalleled resource has been publicly updated in two years and ten months…
Worth waiting for! PRC Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia forces all documented authoritatively as nowhere else.
Even a quick glance […]

I was honored to join many China scholars and others at a recent event in Cambridge, MA:
“Coexistence 2.0: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing World” Conference. Co-presented by the Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and the Harvard Kennedy Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia, with support from the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and […]

My initial take:
This year’s report documents a relentless ramp-up of PRC military capabilities toward 2027 and beyond. Despite having over 400 nuclear warheads already, and expanding at a rate that would reach 1,500 by 2035, Beijing refuses to acknowledge its buildup, let alone engage in arms control discussions. We are seeing the dangerous results of […]

Now that the Department of Defense (DoD) has just released the 2022 China Military Power Report (CMPR)… you can access the Full Text & accompanying documents below. Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can […]

Honored to present on “Panel 4: Competition & Cooperation in Security, Ideas and Rules,” at “Coexistence 2.0: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing World” Conference.

Co-presented by the Harvard University Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and the Harvard Kennedy Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia, with support from the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations and UC San […]

2022 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundred Seventeenth Congress, Second Session, 15 November 2022.
Click here to download a cached copy of the full text.

Topics this year include CCP decision-making and Xi Jinping’s centralization of authority, challenging China’s trade practices, China’s energy plans and practices, U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities and resilience, China’s […]

Great new job opportunity at the Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI)! Apply now to join a leading collegial team that publishes cutting-edge research to inform the Navy and engage the Nation!
Complete information at USAJOBS!

Now listed via The Chronicle of Higher Education!

Now highlighted by Naval Intelligence Professionals!

Faculty Position Vacancy (Assistant/Associate Professor, China Maritime […]

Chinese Space Activities Will Increasingly Challenge U.S. Interests through 2030, National Intelligence Estimate NIE 2021-01634 (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, April 2021; declassified by DNI Haines 17 September 2022).

[To maximize readability, the below transcription renders redactions of any length as brief ellipses. Click here to download a cached copy of the […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Coast Guard: Organization, Forces, and Yellow Sea Applications,” in Andrew S. Erickson, ed., Maritime Gray Zone Operations: Challenges and Countermeasures in the Indo-Pacific (New York, NY: Routledge Cass Series: Naval Policy & History, 2022), 54–76.

Introduction
China has by far the world’s largest Coast Guard by number of ships, with the world’s largest Maritime Law Enforcement (MLE) ships […]