Andrew S. Erickson

Paul Nantulya’s incisive work curates and analyzes revealing information on an array of important and timely but hitherto under-researched topics, following PRC activities across the continent that will contribute the vast majority of new people to the world during this century!
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Paul Nantulya Bookshelf: Elucidating China-Africa Relations with Unique Insights,” China Analysis […]

“A Powerful Chinese Navy Is Ready to Flex Its Muscles,” ANI News, 3 January 2022.
Hong Kong, January 3 (ANI): Last year was a phenomenal one for China’s navy – the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) – with approximately 170,000 tonnes’ worth of new  ships commissioned in 2021. … … …
With all these new vessels, … the […]

Manfred Meyer (edited by Larry Bond and Chris Carlson), Modern Chinese Maritime Forces (Admiralty Trilogy Group, 1 January 2022).

“A compilation of ships and boats of the Chinese Navy, Coast Guard, Maritime Militia and other state authorities”
In terms of ship numbers, each of China’s three sea forces is the world’s largest by a large margin. For the […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, U.S.-China Competition Enters the Decade of Maximum Danger: Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s (Houston, TX: Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, 20 December 2021).
As China’s relative power peaks during this decade, Xi Jinping is likely to make a catastrophic move against Taiwan if he calculates that his […]

Tom Fox, The PLA Army’s New Helicopters: An “Easy Button” for Crossing the Taiwan Strait? China Maritime Report 17 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, December 2021).
In this report, U.S. Army Major Tom Fox examines the feasibility of a PLA Army air assault across the Taiwan Strait.

About the Author
Maj. Tom Fox is […]

Updated text added 18 April 2023:

Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022 (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 29 November 2022), pp. 37–38:
“…the new 2027 goal…did likely shift the PLA’s development of certain capabilities within the categories of the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization. If realized, this achievement […]

Don’t miss the latest Martinson masterpiece: Pathbreaking analysis in Asian Security on coordination between China’s Navy and Coast Guard in “gray zones” at sea! Reveals both substantial improvements and lingering limitations… Prof. Ryan Martinson’s cutting-edge insights offer a unique “feel” for precise PRC capabilities, shortfalls & trends… an analytical x-factor that’s all-too-hard to come by!
Ryan […]

The international community keeps a close watch on China’s security policy and its military trends. The Japanese public has been increasingly aware of the large impact of China’s rising military (and economic) power that may have a huge impact on Japanese security. China, now the second largest economy in the world, has become an essentially […]

“After Glasgow—The Good, the Bad, and the Hopeful,” Virtual Meeting, Council on Foreign Relations, 19 November 2021.
Click here to watch on YouTube!

Our panelists review the recent COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, including climate action since the Paris Accords and how governments and businesses can step up to address the complex challenges of climate change and adaptation.
Speakers
Andrew S. […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “North Korea Scenario and PRC Response: Layered Containment and Management of a Collapse-Induced Maritime Exodus,” presented via Zoom at conference sponsored by the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI) and Harvard Belfer Center, 22 November 2021.
Maritime Security and Peace on the Korean Peninsula
Mon., Nov. 22, 2021 | 7:00pm – 9:00pm

Join us for this Zoom Webinar event.
The […]

2021 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundred Seventeenth Congress, First Session, 17 November 2021.
Click here to download a cached copy of the full text.

Topics this year include the CCP’s ambitions and challenges at its centennial, China’s influence in Latin America and the Caribbean, the CCP’s economic and technological ambitions, […]

Great to speak with Gordon Arthur for his latest piece! I long enjoyed catching up with “King Arthur” and fellow defense journalists at the Zhuhai Airshow, and really miss those days! But now we continue our tracking of PLA developments by other open source means—and here you can read about the latest PRC military maritime […]

“Pentagon Report Issues ‘Clarion Call’ Over Chinese Military Ambitions,” ANI News, 8 November 2021.

… The CMPR [China Military Power Report] only covers developments till the end of 2020, the better part of a year ago. For that reason, it did not mention the test of a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) several months ago. A […]

Andrew S. Erickson, interviewed by Harry J. Kazianis, “How Powerful Is China’s Military? The Pentagon’s New China Report Offers Answers,” 19FortyFive, 12 November 2021.
Editor’s Note: Having distilled the 2021 China Military Power Report (CMPR)’s key findings into a six-page summary last week, Dr. Andrew S. Erickson now offers his big-picture conclusions and recommendations.

Q: What’s the biggest […]

Updated 7 November 2021
The Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report: My Summary
Worth Waiting For—Now No Time to Waste!
Andrew S. Erickson
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report: My Summary,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 5 November 2021.

Click here for a printable PDF version.
Despite coming out late in the year, the Pentagon’s 2021 […]

Despite coming out late in the year, the Pentagon’s 2021 China Military Power Report (CMPR) was worth the wait!
Since the first edition in 2000, the annual CMPR issued by the Department of Defense (DoD) has offered government-verified data on China’s meteoric military rise simply unfindable or unconfirmable anywhere else.
Among today’s top takeaways: in a shocking […]

Now that the Department of Defense (DoD) has just released the 2021 China Military Power Report (CMPR)… you can access the Full Text & accompanying documents below. Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can […]

Pathbreaking contribution by J. Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer and a senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Among his Indo-Pacific assignments, he formerly served as Assistant U.S. Naval Attaché in Beijing—& graciously hosted me & my CMSI colleagues there. Check out the revealing accompanying graphics: 47 figures & 7 […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 30 October 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]