Andrew S. Erickson

National Research Council, Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2013).
Committee on Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces; Naval Studies Board; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council
INTRODUCTION
A letter dated December 21, 2011, to National Academy of Sciences President Dr. Ralph Cicerone […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “No Substitute for Experience,” Guest Blog Post for Elizabeth C. Economy, Asia Unbound, Council on Foreign Relations, 2 January 2014.
This guest post is by Andrew Erickson, an associate professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College, and Austin Strange, a researcher for the College’s China Maritime […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Near-Seas Challenges,” The National Interest 129 (January-February 2014): 60-66.
THE U.S. National Intelligence Council forecasts that China will become the world’s largest economy (measured by purchasing-power parity) in 2022. Jane’s predicts that by 2015 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) funding will double to $238 billion, surpassing that of NATO’s eight largest militaries after the United States […]

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #6: Mining & Minerals,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 78 (23 December 2013).

China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s rise as a top global mineral consumer and producer creates three key dynamics that we believe investors and policymakers should follow closely.
First, the pursuit of minerals is bringing Chinese miners and energy […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #5: Industrial and Technical Development,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 77 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
A bevy of recent developments in China’s shipbuilding and aerospace sectors highlights important dynamics playing out in its overall technical-industrial growth and development.
On the shipbuilding front, Chinese naval yards are now […]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #4: Macro and Strategic Assessments,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 76 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China SignPost anchors its China macroeconomic research with a tight focus on the sustainability of Chinese economic growth. The country’s comprehensive national power is ultimately predicated on having an economy robust […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #3: Agricultural & Consumer Markets,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 75 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
Legacies of restrictive farmland ownership policies, in addition to land and water resources overtaxed by pollution and urban development, constrain China’s agricultural production potential significantly. Famine and grain supply problems […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #2: Military and Security Developments,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 74 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
In the three years since we established China SignPost, Beijing’s military developments—both in technical and operational terms—have been nothing short of astounding. We’ve covered the most important milestones closely, offering insights […]

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #1: Energy & Transportation,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 73 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
To conclude 2013 on a high note, we are publishing six category-based compilations, each containing five of the China SignPost™ research pieces that we believe to have been the “greatest hits” […]

美国海军战争学院副教授 艾立信 [Andrew S. Erickson, U.S. Naval War College], 奥斯丁·斯特兰奇 [and Austin M. Strange], “相向而行, 潜力可观–面向未来的中美亚丁湾海上通道安全合作” (Towards the Same End, With Considerable Potential: Considering Future Sino-American Cooperation Regarding Sea Lane Security in the Gulf of Aden), 国际战略研究简报 [International and Strategic Studies Report] (北京大学国际战略研究中心主办) [Center for International and Strategic Studies, Peking University] 86 (13 September 2013): 1-4.
亚丁湾的反海盗行动, 包括美国和中国及其他许多国家海军的合作, 是一个 保障海上通道(SLOCs)的国际合作的成功案例。美中两国海军在打击海盗方面的合作有何优势和缺点? 其在亚丁湾护航的经历能为中美在其他海域保障海上通道 的联合行动提供何种经验教训? 围绕上述问题, 本文拟对美中两国反海盗行动的方式、双方迄今为止所进行的反海盗合作的性质、亚丁湾护航案例为未来美中管理海上公域提供的经验教训, 以及对双边合作的指导原则的启示等进行考察。 。。。
Anti-piracy efforts in the Gulf […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Naval Modernization: Implications and Recommendations,” Testimony before the House Armed Services Committee Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee, “U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategic Considerations Related to PLA Naval Forces” hearing, Washington, DC, 11 December 2013.
 
Click here for additional information on the hearing.
The archived Webcast is available here.
For an article that builds on this testimony, see […]

The previous 96 (!) versions were all great, but this one now stands as the best! Please take a minute and think how much work Mr. O’Rourke has put into producing this invaluable series over all these years.

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 30 […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Deterrence by Denial: How to Prevent China From Using Force,” The National Interest, 16 December 2013.
In contrast to ongoing limitations, shared interests, and even opportunities for increasingly-robust cooperation far away, China’s navy and other services are achieving formidable anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities closer to shore. Beijing is prioritizing an “anti-Navy” to deter U.S. intervention in the […]

Adam P. Liff and Andrew S. Erickson, “Demystifying China’s Defence Spending: Less Mysterious in the Aggregate,” The China Quarterly 216 (December 2013): 805-30. (lead article)
Click here to read the full text version.
Abstract
China’s limited transparency concerning its defence spending harms strategic trust, but foreign analysts often lose sight of important realities. Specific details remain unclear, but China’s defence spending overall is no mystery – it supports PLA modernization and personnel development as well […]

This is what top-level leadership support for national space development looks like!
Hou Qiang, “Chinese President, Premier Arrive in Aerospace Control Center,” Xinhua, 15 December 2013.
BEIJING, Dec. 15 (Xinhua) — Chinese president Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang arrived in Beijing Aerospace Control Center (BACC) on Sunday night.
The moon lander and moon rover “Yutu”, or Jade Rabbit, will take pictures […]

Douglas H. Paal, “Contradictions in China’s Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 13 December 2013.
You may have missed the funeral, but China’s new leadership has quietly buried the admonition of former leader Deng Xiaoping that as China rises in wealth and power it should maintain a low profile (known as taoguang yanghui). In its place, […]

Jon Harper, “Chinese Warship Nearly Collided With USS Cowpens,” Stars and Stripes, 13 December 2013.
WASHINGTON – On Dec. 5, a Chinese warship nearly collided with a U.S. Navy guided missile cruiser, according to U.S. Pacific Fleet.
“While lawfully operating in international waters in the South China Sea, USS Cowpens (CG 63) and a PLA Navy vessel had […]

Michael D. Swaine, Rachel Esplin Odell, Luo Yuan, and Liu Xiangdong, U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12 December 2013).
Click here for a full-text PDF of the report.
Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship. […]

Click here to read the report.
“China Focus: China’s Lunar Probe Soft-Lands on Moon,” Xinhua, 14 December 2013.
BEIJING, Dec. 14 (Xinhua) — China’s lunar probe Chang’e-3, with the country’s first moon rover onboard, successfully landed on the moon on Saturday night, marking the first time that China has sent a spacecraft to soft land on the […]