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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

01 September 2011

Chinese Aerospace Power Highlighted by Bradley Perrett in Aviation Week ASBM Analysis

Bradley Perrett, “Pacific Projections: Could—And Would—China Target U.S. Ships with its DF-21D Ballistic Missile?” Aviation Week & Space Technology, 29 August-5 September 2011: 67-68.
China’s DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile system presents one of the world’s most decisive challenges in the field of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), with potentially far-reaching consequences for international affairs. …
The main […]

01 September 2011

Barry Watts, CSBA: The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs

Barry Watts, The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 3 June 2011).
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is pleased to release The Maturing Revolution in Military Affairs. The report, authored by Center Senior Fellow Barry Watts, considers the maturation of the precision-strike regime and five of the most […]

31 August 2011

The U.S. Must Continue to Use Space and Can “Win without Fighting” There—It’s Just Not a Panacea, a Sanctuary, or a Desirable Battlefield

The positions expressed here are the author’s personal views. They do not represent the U.S. Naval War College, Navy, Department of Defense, or Government, and do not necessarily reflect the policies or estimates of these or any other organizations.
Even as the United States and China are more economically interdependent and closely connected than ever before, […]

30 August 2011

English-Language Version of 2011 ROC National Defense Report Confirms: “a small quantity of” DF-21D ASBMs “were produced and deployed in 2010, increasing the difficulty of military maneuvers in the region for the U.S. Army.”

National Defense Report Editing Committee, Ministry of National Defense, 2011 ROC National Defense Report (Taipei: Ministry of National Defense, August 2011).
(I) Strengthening Integrated Joint Operations Capabilities
p. 71
4. Second Artillery Strike Capabilities
Under the guidance to “balance nuclear and conventional,” the PLA has continued the development of independently targetable intercontinental range ballistic missiles, strengthened strategic nuclear intimidation, […]

29 August 2011

Defense Tech Quotes China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #43 on China’s “Starter Carrier”

“China’s ‘Starter Carrier’,” Defense Tech, 29 August 2011.
Here are some thoughts on the significance of China’s new aircraft carrier that Andrew Erickson, an expert on the PLAN at the U.S. Naval War College, passed on to Defense Tech. While China’s “starter carrier” may not compare to one of the U.S. Navy’s Nimitz class supercarriers, it […]

29 August 2011

David Axe, AOL Breaking Defense: “China’s ‘Ripples of Capability’: An Interview with Andrew Erickson”

David Axe, “China’s ‘Ripples of Capability’: An Interview with Andrew Erickson,” AOL Breaking Defense, 29 August 2011.
For any Westerner observer struggling to understand Chinese military developments — and let’s be serious, that’s most of us — Andrew Erickson is an indispensable resource. A professor at the Naval War College, Erickson has edited an influential series of […]

29 August 2011

David Axe, The Diplomat: “US ‘Misled Over Stealth Bomber’”

David Axe, “US ‘Misled Over Stealth Bomber’,” The Diplomat, 29 August 2011.
In 2008, a B-2 crashed at Guam, reducing the stealth fleet to its current level. In the wake of the accident, critics bemoaned the Pentagon’s tendency to concentrate increasing combat power in a decreasing number of ultra-expensive ‘platforms.’

In February 2010, there was another […]

29 August 2011

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #44 Cited by Walter Russell Mead in Via Media Blog, The American Interest

Walter Russell Mead, “China’s Growth To Slow By 50 Percent?” Via Media Blog, The American Interest, 29 August 2011.
 
Key conclusions from a paper by Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson at China Sign Post… Read the whole thing.  … Of course nobody, including the Chinese, know what comes next in China, but these authors make […]

26 August 2011

Edward Wong, New York Times: “China State TV Deletes Video Implying Hacking of Western Sites”

Edward Wong, “China State TV Deletes Video Implying Hacking of Western Sites,” New York Times, 26 August 2011.
The main Chinese state television network has deleted from the Internet a video that some foreign military and Internet security analysts say implies China has engaged in hacking attacks on Web sites in the West.
The video was […]

26 August 2011

James Fallows, The Atlantic: “Update on Backups, Passwords, and Chinese Hacking”

James Fallows, “Update on Backups, Passwords, and Chinese Hacking,” The Atlantic, 26 August 2011.
… As for the “smoking cursor” video from the Chinese military that appears to show them in the middle of launching a hacking attack on U.S. sites, I encourage you to follow Andrew S. Erickson’s ongoing reports and analyses, which go into […]

26 August 2011

Chinese Aerospace Power Recommended by Eleni Ekmektsioglou in The Diplomat

Eleni Ekmektsioglou, “Understanding China,” The Diplomat, 26 August 2011.
… despite the numerous one-off articles, there hasn’t until now been a place in English that brings together all the pieces of the puzzle. That is until the recent publication by the China Maritime Studies Institute of Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles. The volume, a collection of essays, […]

26 August 2011

Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg: “China Has ‘Workable’ Anti-Ship Missile Design, Pentagon Says”

Tony Capaccio, “China Has ‘Workable’ Anti-Ship Missile Design, Pentagon Says,” Bloomberg, 25 August 2011.
China has developed a “workable design” of the world’s first anti-ship ballistic missile, potentially capable of hitting and disabling a U.S. aircraft carrier, according to Pentagon officials.
China also has satellites in place “that could provide some targeting data on large surface […]

25 August 2011

Adam Segal, Asia Unbound Blog, Council on Foreign Relations: “Sometimes It’s Not China (Though This Is Probably Not the Week To Be Saying It)”

Adam Segal, “Sometimes It’s Not China (Though This Is Probably Not the Week To Be Saying It),” Asia Unbound Blog, Council on Foreign Relations, 25 August 2011.
This week we’ve had a rash of reporting that suggests the links between the state and Chinese hackers.
Smoking Cursor: First reported in the Epoch Times, and then picked up […]

25 August 2011

Erickson and Goldstein Publish Book on Chinese Aerospace Power

“Erickson and Goldstein Publish Book on Chinese Aerospace Power,” Naval War College Public Affairs Office, 25 August 2011.
NEWPORT, R.I. – Professors Andrew Erickson and Lyle Goldstein of the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) collaborated on a book released in July titled, “Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles.”
This edited volume offers a […]

25 August 2011

Trent Nouveau, TG Daily: “China Teases Military CyOps”

Trent Nouveau, “China Teases Military CyOps,” TG Daily, 25 August 2011.
China’s official military channel (CCTV-7) recently provided a six-second glimpse into the country’s enigmatic cyber capabilities. …
Nevertheless, analysts believe the footage – if genuine – is actually more than a decade old.
“It appeared to show dated computer screenshots of a Chinese military institute conducting […]

25 August 2011

Tania Branigan, The Guardian: “Chinese TV Programme Shows Apparent Cyber-Attack on US Website”

Tania Branigan, “Chinese TV Programme Shows Apparent Cyber-Attack on US Website,” The Guardian, 25 August 2011.
Footage that appears to feature army-labelled software raises questions about China’s denials of involvement in hacking
China’s state broadcaster has shown footage apparently featuring army-labelled software for attacking US-based websites, security experts say.
Beijing has consistently denied being behind cyber-attacks, insisting that […]

25 August 2011

Melanie Lee, Reuters: “Chinese State TV Shows Military Cyber Hacking Clip”

Melanie Lee, “Chinese State TV Shows Military Cyber Hacking Clip,” Reuters, 25 August 2011.
A six-second clip on Chinese state television has provided a rare glimpse into purported cyber hacking attacks launched by the country’s military, despite long-standing official denials that the government engages in such activity. …
It is unclear if the programme on the screen […]

25 August 2011

Did China Tip Cyber War Hand?

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “Did China Tip Cyber War Hand?” The Diplomat, 25 August 2011.
A programme broadcast on the military channel of China’s state TV raises new questions about Beijing’s support for cyber attacks.
Amid growing US concerns over ongoing Chinese cyber attacks, attribution remains the most complex issue. At the open source […]

24 August 2011

Jeremy Page, Wall Street Journal: “China State TV Alludes to U.S. Website Attacks”

Jeremy Page, “China State TV Alludes to U.S. Website Attacks,” Wall Street Journal, 24 August 2011.
Chinese state television has broadcast footage of what two experts on the Chinese military say appears to be a military institute demonstrating software designed to attack websites in the U.S.
Although it could be a decade old or a mock-up, the […]