Andrew S. Erickson

On p. 57, the 2018 report from Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS), entitled “The China-US Relationship at a Crossroads,” does what the U.S. government should have done at the time, and has suffered unfortunate consequences for failing to do. In “Table 3-2: Major Actions Taken by China in the South China Sea,” under […]

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Nuclear Posture Review (Arlington, VA: Office of the Secretary of Defense, February 2018).
Click here to download a full-text PDF of the officially-released report.
Read Executive Summary in English, РУССКИЙ, 中文, 한국어, 日本語, or FRANÇAIS.
Key China-Related Excerpts:
p. 2
The United States remains committed to its efforts in support of the ultimate global elimination of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. […]

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Japan Defense White Paper mentions China Maritime Militia (p. 95):

Part of China’s Armed Forces
Xi visited
SCS ops.

FN 51-54:

Xi visited in 2013
Incidents include 2009 Impeccable & 2014 HYSY-981 oil rig
DefMin Chang visited in 2016
ADM Swift stressed w/ADM Wu

 
DEFENSE OF JAPAN 2017
Click here to download the EPUB Version.
Foreword
Special Feature 1
The 10th Anniversary of the Reorganization into Ministry of […]

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Happy to see my colleagues Peter Dutton and Ryan Martinson quoted in this recently-published report!
Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 18 September 2017).
Summary
China since the early to mid-1990s has been steadily building a modern and powerful navy. China’s navy in recent years has emerged […]

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Happy to see my colleagues Peter Dutton and Ryan Martinson quoted in this recently-published report!
Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 18 August 2017).
Summary
China is building a modern and regionally powerful navy with a limited but growing capability for conducting operations beyond China’s near-seas region. […]

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五味 睦佳 (監修) [Gomi Mutsuyoshi (supervisor)], ジョー・マクレイノルズ (編集, その他) [Joe McReynolds (Editor)], 伊藤 和雄 (翻訳) [Ito Kazuo (Translator)], 大野 慶二 (翻訳) [Ohno Keiji (Translator)], 鬼塚 隆志 (翻訳) [Onnuka Takashi (Translator)], 木村 初夫 (翻訳) [Kimura Hatsuo (Translator)], 五島 浩司 (翻訳) [Goto Koji (Translator)], 沢口 信弘 (翻訳) [Sawaguchi Nobuhiro (Translator)], 中国の進化する軍事戦略 [China’s Evolving Military Strategy] (Tokyo: 原書房 […]

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The international community keeps a close watch on China’s security policy and its military trends. The Japanese public has been increasingly aware of the large impact of China’s rising military (and economic) power that may have a huge impact on Japanese security. China, now the second largest economy in the world, has become an essentially […]

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下平 拓哉 [Capt. Takuya Shimodaira, JMSDF], “中国第3の海上兵力: 海上民兵” [China’s Third Sea Force: The Maritime Militia], 海上自衛隊幹部学校 [Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Maritime Staff College], 8 August 2016.
 これからの中国の海洋におけるパワーを判断するためには、中国海軍、第2の海軍と言われる中国海警局（China Coast Guard）、そして海上民兵(Maritime Militia)の3つの研究が欠かせません。 　米海大中国海事研究所(CMSI)における海上民兵研究のスペシャリストは、アンドリュー・エリクソン(Andrew S. Erickson)教授とコナー・ケネディ(Conor M. Kennedy)研究助手でしょう。特にケネディ氏は、この新しい研究分野におけるパイオニア的存在であり、CMSIでは親しみを込めて「ミスター海上民兵」と呼ばれているほど、緻密な分析研究を続けています。 
   中国の海上民兵は、近年急速に活動を活発化しています。特に、東シナ海や南シナ海において中国の権利を主張するための情報収集や建築資材の運搬等、幅広い任務を果たすようになってきています。また、中国海軍艦艇への燃料や弾薬等の補給や、機雷や対空ミサイルを使ったゲリラ戦の訓練も実施されています。 
   エリクソン教授によれば、海上民兵に係る最近の特徴は、次のとおりです。 　第1に、中国の主張を強硬に推し進めるために、単一ではなく、中国海軍、中国海警局、海上民兵の3つが協同する。 
   第2に、中国は、世界第2の中国海軍、世界第1の中国海警局、そして世界第1の海上民兵を有しており、海上民兵は非正規戦の最前線に立つ。 
   第3に、海上民兵は、平時に相手に圧力をかける上で非常に有効である。 
   今後、中国の海上民兵は、米国等による「航行の自由作戦」に挑戦するために、より高圧的な行動に出ることが予想され、また米国や同盟国の交戦規定(ROE)の隙をつく活動を活発化する等、ますます厄介なアクターとなってくるでしょう。多数の船団からなる海上民兵の船舶は、中国の衛星測位システム北斗で位置情報を入手していると言われていますが、部隊としての通信ネットワークについてはまだまだ問題があるようです。
 
(2016年7月23日記)
 
【エリクソン教授推薦の海上民兵に関する論文】
1) Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “China’s Maritime Militia: What It Is and […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Doctrinal Sea Change, Making Real Waves: Examining the Naval Dimension of Strategy,” in Joe McReynolds, ed., China’s Evolving Military Strategy (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, 2016), 99-132.
PART 1           PART 2           PREFACE & VOLUME INFORMATION

Available through Brookings Institution Press.
Reprinted as “新たな波紋を広げている海洋変革ドクトリン ――中国の海洋戦略に関する検証” [Doctrinal Sea Change, Making Real Waves: Examining the Naval […]

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From Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS, 防衛研究所), a worthy complement to the U.S. Department of Defense’s annual report to Congress on Chinese military and security issues!
Click here for the full text of the 2016 report.
The international community keeps a close watch on China’s security policy and its military trends. The Japanese public has […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, Lyle J. Goldstein, William S. Murray, and Andrew R. Wilson, eds.,China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Force (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2007).
Reprinted in Chinese as [美] 安德鲁·S·埃里克森 [Andrew S. Erickson], 莱尔·J·戈尔茨坦 [Lyle J. Goldstein], 威廉·S·默里 [William S. Murray], 安德鲁·R·威尔逊 [Andrew R. Wilson], (编者) [Editors]; 刘宏伟 [Liu Hongwei]  (译者) [Translator]; 中国未来核潜艇力量 [China’s Future Nuclear […]

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“Experts Discuss Security Risks,” Newsline, NHK World, 16 October 2015.
Watch my comments China’s A2/AD approach and “island” construction starting at minute 1:30 on the English-language version of the program.
View a clip of my comments on the Japanese-language version of the program.
Click here to watch the Japanese-language program in its entirety. (I speak during minutes 5:07-5:25).

NEWSLINE delivers […]

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In an op-ed published both English and Japanese, Prof. Adam Liff and I argue that Tokyo and Beijing urgently need to establish, and to reliably implement, bilateral crisis management capabilities vis-à-vis the East China Sea. Hotline(s) could be of particular utility as a contact mechanism, but would only be as good as both sides’ commitment to actually using […]

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In an op-ed published today, Prof. Adam Liff and I argue that Tokyo and Beijing urgently need to establish, and to reliably implement, bilateral crisis management capabilities vis-à-vis the East China Sea. Hotline(s) could be of particular utility as a contact mechanism, but would only be as good as both sides’ commitment to actually using them in […]

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Adam P. Liff and Andrew S. Erickson, “Crowding the Waters: The Need for Crisis Management in the East China Sea,” Foreign Affairs, 23 March 2015.
Since September 2012, the waters and airspace surrounding the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea have become increasingly crowded. China is conducting more military and paramilitary operations, and Japan is […]

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“中国軍の台頭どう分析” [How to Analyze the Rise of China’s Military], 朝日新聞 [Asahi Shimbun], 26 August 2014, 10.

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Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “Pandora’s Sandbox: China’s Island-Building Strategy in the South China Sea,” Foreign Affairs, 13 July 2014.
Ongoing international disputes over territory in the South China Sea have led many to invoke an old adage: “When the facts are on your side, pound the facts. When the law is on your side, pound […]

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Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “China Has Drones. Now What? When Beijing Will—and Won’t—Use Its UAVs,” Foreign Affairs, 23 May 2013.
The time to fret about when China will acquire drones is over: it has them. The question now is when and how it will use them. But as with its other, less exotic military capabilities, […]

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Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “New Fleet on the Block: China’s Coast Guard Comes Together,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 11 March 2013.
JAPANESE TRANSLATION
In a move with significant implications for territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas, the Chinese government announced on Sunday that it plans to centralize bureaucratic […]

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