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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

29 October 2021

SECNAV Del Toro’s Strategic Guidance to Navy/Marine Corps—Emphasizes China’s Three Sea Forces, Including Maritime Militia!

The Honorable Carlos Del Toro, 78th Secretary of the Navy, One Navy-Marine Corps Team—Strategic Guidance from the Secretary of the Navy (Washington, DC: U.S. Navy Office of Information, 8 October 2021).
Click here to download a cached copy.

 KEY CHINA-RELATED EXCERPTS:
p. 1
Since my confirmation as the 78th Secretary of the Navy, I have characterized the most pressing challenges facing the […]

27 October 2021

New Oxford Bibliography: “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)”

Honored to publish Oxford University Press’s Oxford Bibliography on “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA)” with Ian Burns McCaslin! 74 pages of entries cover leading works in the field, each with a convenient summary. When we started compiling this 3+ years ago, we wondered why there weren’t more such resources… We learned the hard way—and want […]

27 October 2021

Ron O’Rourke’s Latest CRS Report—USN Projections of PLAN Ship Numbers Superiority through 2040 & Much More—“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities”

As part of Ronald O’Rourke’s continuous incremental improvements, this 254th (!) edition of his report on Chinese naval modernization incorporates numbers provided by the U.S. Navy. And that’s on top of the numbers from the soon-to-be-superceded Pentagon’s 2020 China Military Power Report. Given the authoritative analysis supporting these revelations, and the rarity with which they are made […]

26 October 2021

O’Rourke’s New CRS Report—“U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South & East China Seas”—Latest on CCG + PAFMM & Gray Zone Ops

This Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 6 October 2021).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access the […]

24 October 2021

Listen to New Midrats Podcast—“Episode 606: China’s Dangerous Decade with Andrew Erickson”

Honored to speak with the hosts CDR Salamander and EagleOne, and all participating in our discussion! 
We spoke live at 5 P.M. (EDT) on 24 October 2021 for Midrats Episode 606: China’s Dangerous Decade with Andrew Erickson…

Click here to listen to the 66-minute podcast!
Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s Dangerous Decade with Andrew Erickson,” Midrats Podcast Episode 606, […]

21 October 2021

Now Hiring! Executive Director for Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies & Harvard China Fund

Click here to access more information on how to apply via Harvard’s HR website.
 

Faculty of Arts and Sciences

55985BR

Job-Specific Responsibilities
The Executive Director (ED) of the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies (FCCS) and the Harvard China Fund (HCF) plays a critical role in leading two of the university’s key centers for research, teaching and outreach regarding Greater […]

18 October 2021

A Dangerous Decade of Chinese Power Is Here: China’s Power is Peaking—As is the Danger for the U.S.

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “A Dangerous Decade of Chinese Power Is Here,” Foreign Policy, 18 October 2021.
China’s Power is Peaking—As is the Danger for the United States
Beijing knows time isn’t on its side and wants to act fast.

U.S. and allied policymakers are facing the most important foreign-policy challenge of the 21st century. China’s […]

18 October 2021

Remembering Colin Powell: A Meeting in China

I am forever honored to have met Colin Powell, then Secretary of State, during his July 28–29, 2001 visit to Beijing, China.

[PHOTO: Andrew S. Erickson and fellow interns with Secretary of State Colin Powell, U.S. Embassy Beijing, July 2001. Newly-arrived Ambassador Clark T. “Sandy” Randt Jr. (雷德) stands in background.]
Powell quietly commanded respect—exuding maximum authority […]

17 October 2021

Interviewed by ANI News: “China Exploits the ‘Decade of Danger’”

“China Exploits the ‘Decade of Danger’,” ANI News, 12 October 2021.

… This period where China’s military and strategic power grows to the point that …war becomes possible, and with the USA and allies [currently at risk of being perceived as] unprepared to properly deter, is described as “the decade of greatest danger” by Andrew Erickson, a Professor […]

13 October 2021

CMSI China Maritime Report #15: “The New Chinese Marine Corps: A ‘Strategic Dagger’ in a Cross-Strait Invasion”

Conor M. Kennedy, The New Chinese Marine Corps: A “Strategic Dagger” in a Cross-Strait Invasion, China Maritime Report 15 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, October 2021).
This report discusses the recent expansion/reform of the Chinese Marine Corps in the context of a Taiwan invasion scenario.

Summary
Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy Marine […]

03 October 2021

Unique Order of Battle!—China’s Navy: Ships & Aircraft of the PRC, 1955–2021

A comprehensive compendium of PLAN, PLAAF, CCG ships & aircraft + missiles/weapons & sensors from 1955 to present, as you’ve never seen them before… Consult this unparalleled unclassified reference for analysis or gaming today! 
Larry Bond, Chris Carlson, and Peter Grining, eds., China’s Navy: Ships and Aircraft of the People’s Republic of China, 1955 – 2021 (Admiralty […]

02 October 2021

October 1 Edition of “Modern Chinese Maritime Forces”—Tracks World’s Most Navy, Coast Guard & Maritime Militia Ships

Manfred Meyer (edited by Larry Bond and Chris Carlson), Modern Chinese Maritime Forces (Admiralty Trilogy Group, 1 October 2021).

“A compilation of ships and boats of the Chinese Navy, Coast Guard, Maritime Militia and other state authorities”
In terms of ship numbers, each of China’s three sea forces is the world’s largest by a large margin. For the […]

20 September 2021

Australia Badly Needs Nuclear Submarines: AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Deal Is a Massive Boost for Australia’s Navy

Andrew S. Erickson, “Australia Badly Needs Nuclear Submarines: AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Deal Is a Massive Boost for Australia’s Navy,” Foreign Policy, 20 September 2021.
The country’s maritime scope, and China’s rise, makes the AUKUS deal a no brainer.

It’s rare that a submarine deal—or any military partnership—creates quite as many waves as the Australia-United Kingdom-United States agreement […]

10 September 2021

China Is Disrupting the Ocean’s Blue Carbon Sink

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China Is Disrupting the Ocean’s Blue Carbon Sink,” Foreign Policy, 10 September 2021.
Washington and Beijing need to protect the global seabed—and address the staggering loophole in greenhouse gas reporting.
Bottom line: The U.S. Must Address China’s Blue Carbon Disruption
By Andrew S. Erickson, a professor of strategy in the U.S. Naval War College’s […]

02 September 2021

China Is Laying Climate Traps for the United States

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “China Is Laying Climate Traps for the United States,” Foreign Policy, 2 September 2021.
With the Glasgow conference approaching, U.S. diplomats must be careful.
By Gabriel B. Collins, the Baker Botts fellow in energy and environmental regulatory affairs at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, and Andrew S. Erickson, a professor […]

31 August 2021

China’s Climate Cooperation Smokescreen: A Roadmap for Seeing Through the Trap and Countering with Competition

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, China’s Climate Cooperation Smokescreen: A Roadmap for Seeing Through the Trap and Countering with Competition (Houston, TX: Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, 31 August 2021).
China accounts for approximately 29% of global carbon dioxide emissions but has an “abiding commitment to coal,” write the authors. Their report outlines […]

31 August 2021

“Chinese Tactics”—Read the New U.S. Army Report!

With straightforward Army thoroughness… a fascinating interpretation of how the PLA approaches warfare, particularly with regard to its ground forces!
Chinese Tactics, ATP 7-100.3 (Arlington, VA: Headquarters, Department of the Army, 9 August 2021).
Download a cached copy here.
Click here to read information on related publications.

BACKGROUND:
Steven Aftergood, “U.S. Army Views Chinese Military Tactics,” Federation of American Scientists, 23 […]

16 August 2021

Mind The Gap: How China’s Civilian Shipping Could Enable a Taiwan Invasion

Timely, relevant, and predictive analysis by brilliant analyst Thomas Shugart. Best read together with (1) the pathbreaking, widely-cited article by Conor Kennedy that he mentions, and (2) the Quick Look summary of the CMSI Conference to which both superstars made critical contributions. I’ve linked all three pieces here; please scroll down to access all now!
Thomas Shugart, […]

15 August 2021

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Latest Data, Music Video, Statements, Analysis, Wikipedia & More!

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 15 August 2021.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be hoped […]