Andrew S. Erickson

Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Chinese Traders Poised to Profit From Iran Oil Embargo,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 26 January 2012.
Europe’s decision to embargo Iranian oil exports is strategically sound, since a nuclear-armed Iran is in no one’s interest. Yet, policymakers are overlooking how an embargo may strategically reshape the global oil [...]

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “Domestic Politics will Buffet US-China Relations in 2012,” China-US Focus, 25 January 2012.
China and the U.S. represent each other’s single most important foreign relationship, yet also each other’s broadest array of foreign policy challenges. While interdependent, since the fall of the Soviet Union they have lacked a common external danger [...]

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “Year of The Water Dragon: 12 Chinese Maritime Developments to Look for in 2012,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 23 January 2012.

China has now entered the Year of the Dragon. According to traditional geomancy, for the first time since 1952, the year will be associated [...]

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China’s New Strategic Target: Arctic Minerals,” China Real Time Report (中国事实报), Wall Street Journal, 18 January 2012.
As policymakers in Washington focus on China’s expanding presence in Africa and growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean region, Danish diplomatic assistance is opening the gate for China to establish [...]

Andrew S. Erickson, “The U.S. Security Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region,” in Asia Pacific Countries’ Security Outlook and Its Implications for the Defense Sector, NIDS Joint Research Series No. 6. (Tokyo: National Institute for Defense Studies, January 2012).
The future for the U.S. and its partners is bright: they have prevailed in the Cold War and [...]

Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Digging In: Earthmover sales reflect risks to China’s economic growth,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国), No. 52 (17 January 2012).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
–Earthmover sales are a useful economic indicator because China’s construction and fixed asset-driven economy is very heavy equipment-intensive. Also, construction machines are not a speculative asset in the way copper and other [...]

This article appears designed to send a strong, clear message, and merits very careful reading, analysis, and reflection. It is accompanied by a photograph of DF-21C conventional ballistic missiles, which is one type of an potent variety of long-range strike weapons that China is developing and deploying.
Thanks to Prof. Michael Chase, Naval War College, for directing me [...]

No serious survey of strategic analysis on China is complete without reading Taylor’s detailed scholarly publications. His new website makes this easier to do than ever. I recommend that everyone take a look today! You might especially enjoy some of his research concerning the South China Sea.
For anyone who hasn’t met Taylor at his frequent [...]

The 2011 ROC National Defense Report has confirmed that “a small quantity of” DF-21D ASBMs “were produced and deployed in 2010,” thereby (in the report’s view) “increasing the difficulty of military maneuvers in the region for the U.S. Army.”
Now a key question remains: what are the missile’s specific capabilities? Unfortunately, open sources do not yet [...]

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China’s 2012 Challenges,” The Diplomat, 8 January 2012.
China enters the New Year confronting challenges and opportunities that will be shaped in turn by how its government and populace respond to them. Here outlined are twelve key items and issues that will help define 2012 for China, both at home [...]