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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

24 February 2024

China’s New Military Commanders Reflect Xi Jinping’s Naval Ambitions

Andrew S. Erickson, “China’s New Military Commanders Reflect Xi Jinping’s Naval Ambitions,” Harvard Fairbank Center Blog Post, 23 February 2024.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A FULL-TEXT PDF.

By Andrew S. Erickson, Visiting Professor, Government Department, Harvard University; Professor of Strategy, U.S. Naval War College (NWC) China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI); and Fairbank Center Associate in Research. The views expressed in this piece […]

21 February 2024

“U.S. Must Not Lose Taiwan, Experts Warn”—Most Popular Article on Taipei Times Website

Jonathan Chin, “U.S. Must Not Lose Taiwan, Experts Warn,” Taipei Times, 18 February 2024, 1.

Home
Front Page

Sun, Feb 18, 2024 page 1
US must not lose Taiwan, experts warn
‘A DISASTER’: A successful Chinese attack on Taiwan would undermine the credibility of US security guarantees and could result in a global depression, three experts wrote 
By Jonathan Chin / Staff […]

20 February 2024

Special Presentation Today at Harvard—“China-Russia Relations Two Years into Putin’s Ukraine War: How Strong, For How Long?”

Special Presentation – China-Russia Relations Two Years into Putin’s Ukraine War: How Strong, For How Long?

DETAILS
Date: 

Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Time: 

5:15 pm – 6:30 pm

Event Category:

Special Event

Organizer

Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies
This event is co-sponsored by the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University.

Venue

CGIS South S020, Belfer Case Study Room, 1730 Cambridge St., Cambridge, MA 02138 United […]

16 February 2024

The Taiwan Catastrophe: What America—and the World—Would Lose If China Took the Island

Andrew S. Erickson, Gabriel B. Collins, and Matt Pottinger, “The Taiwan Catastrophe: What America—and the World—Would Lose If China Took the Island,” Foreign Affairs, 16 February 2024.

Most-read article on Foreign Affairs website.
Weekend reading on RealClearDefense.
Summarized in Taipei Times as lead article/front page and most-popular article.
Cited in Ross Douthat, “What the Ukraine Aid Debate Is Really About,” New […]

09 February 2024

China Maritime Report #35: “Beyond Chinese Ferry Tales: The Rise of Deck Cargo Ships in China’s Military Activities, 2023”

A vital, under-researched subject has just been given what we at CMSI call the “Mike Dahm Treatment”! Come for the eye-watering 41 Figures, peruse the 26 Tables, stay for the penetrating analysis…
J. Michael Dahm, Beyond Chinese Ferry Tales: The Rise of Deck Cargo Ships in China’s Military Activities, 2023, China Maritime Report 35 (Newport, RI: […]

08 February 2024

CMSI Note 4: “Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion”

Conor M. Kennedy, “Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion,” CMSI Note 4 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, 8 February 2023).

From CMSI Director Christopher Sharman:
Deck cargo ships. It’s possible you know little about them. Virtually absent from discussions about cross-Strait contingencies is any reference to how deck cargo ships […]

20 January 2024

CMSI Note 3: “‘Choose the Right Person, Choose the Right Path’: Taiwan’s Cross-Strait, National Security & Defense Policies Under a Lai/Hsiao Administration”

Julia M. Famularo, “‘Choose the Right Person, Choose the Right Path’: Taiwan’s Cross-Strait, National Security & Defense Policies Under a Lai/Hsiao Administration,” CMSI Note 3 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, 19 January 2023).

From CMSI Director Christopher Sharman:
While much has been written about last Saturday’s Presidential elections in Taiwan, few have dared […]

17 January 2024

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Latest U.S. Gov’t Docs, SECNAV Guidance, Official Video—& More!

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 17 January 2024.

American & Allied knowledge of the PRC’s Third Sea Force has come a long way since my outstanding Naval War College colleague Professor Conor Kennedy & I began our focused research following his arrival in Newport in […]

16 January 2024

Xi’s Fast & Furious Nuclear Buildup & Beyond: Key Content from Pentagon’s 2023 China Military Power Report

Andrew S. Erickson, “Xi’s Fast & Furious Nuclear Buildup & Beyond: Key Text from Pentagon’s 2023 China Military Power Report,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 16 January 2024.

Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2023 (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, October 19, 2023).

Publication summarizing report’s […]

10 January 2024

China Maritime Report #34: “PLAN Submarine Training in the ‘New Era’”

Christopher H. Sharman and Terry Hess, PLAN Submarine Training in the “New Era”, China Maritime Report 34 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, January 2024).

On the afternoon of June 11, 2018, PRC President and CMC Chairman, Xi Jinping climbed aboard a SHANG-class submarine in Qingdao. While aboard, he discussed submarine training with […]

01 January 2024

Start New Year Right! “Modern Chinese Maritime Forces”—1 January 2024 ed.—Order of Battle for World’s Largest Navy, Coast Guard & Maritime Militia by Ship #s

As we enter 2024, China under Xi is steaming full speed ahead, particularly at sea. Navigate today’s troubled Indo-Pacific waters by consulting the latest version of Modern Chinese Maritime Forces—released today! This most recent iteration of the second edition includes sections for PLA Army (pp. 63–75) and PLA Air Force (pp. 76–78) watercraft; the latest […]

30 December 2023

CMSI Note 2: “Admiral Dong Jun Engages Friends and Foes: China’s First Naval Defense Minister Brings Joint Operational Experience”

Andrew S. Erickson and Christopher H. Sharman, “Admiral Dong Jun Engages Friends and Foes: China’s First Naval Defense Minister Brings Joint Operational Experience,” CMSI Note 2 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, 30 December 2023).

From CMSI Director Christopher Sharman:

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has a new leader – and he is a Navy guy!

On […]

27 December 2023

CMSI Note 1: “Admiral Hu to the Helm: China’s New Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise”

Christopher H. Sharman and Andrew S. Erickson, “Admiral Hu to the Helm: China’s New Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise,” CMSI Note 1 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, 27 December 2023).

Republished in The Maritime Executive. Click here to listen to this 13:16 “Top Story.”
Quoted by Radio Free Asia.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD A FULL-TEXT […]

23 December 2023

China’s Maritime Militia: The “Gray Zone” Force in the South China Sea

Honored to be cited regarding China’s “little blue men”/Maritime Militia. Importantly, tremendous credit is due to my CMSI colleagues. Among his many contributions, Conor Kennedy has pioneered pathbreaking research enabling U.S. Navy/Government understanding of this PRC Third Sea Force. Click here to read a compilation of his cutting-edge publications. And Ryan Martinson has contributed key […]

30 November 2023

China Maritime Report #33: “China’s Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent: Organizational, Operational, and Strategic Implications”

David C. Logan, China’s Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent: Organizational, Operational, and Strategic Implications, China Maritime Report 33 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, December 2023).

About the Author
Dr. David C. Logan is Assistant Professor of Security Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. His research focuses on nuclear weapons, […]

16 November 2023

“U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South & East China Seas: Background & Issues for Congress”—Great Info on PAFMM & CCG from CRS’s Ron O’Rourke!

This periodically-updated Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 15 November 2023).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy here.
You can also click here to access […]

03 November 2023

China Maritime Report #32: “The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army’s Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign”

Perfect timing following the 2023 Pentagon China Military Power Report’s long overdue, first-ever mention of the numerous, highly-impactful PCH191 (AKA PHL-16 close-range ballistic missile/CRBM): “The PLAA used its new PCH191 long-range rocket artillery system during live fire events along China’s east coast as a response to the U.S. CODEL in August 2022. The new long-range […]

25 October 2023

Reaping the Whirlwind: How China’s Coercive Annexation of Taiwan Could Trigger Nuclear Proliferation in Asia and Beyond

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, Reaping the Whirlwind: How China’s Coercive Annexation of Taiwan Could Trigger Nuclear Proliferation in Asia and Beyond (Houston, TX: Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, 25 October 2023).
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD FULL-TEXT PDF.

Five years ago — and certainly a decade ago — coercive annexation of Taiwan by the People’s […]

24 October 2023

Presented at NBR Event: “Assessing U.S.-China Deterrence Dynamics & Crisis Management”

“Assessing U.S.-China Deterrence Dynamics & Crisis Management,” symposium hosted virtually by National Bureau of Asian Research, 11 October 2023.
Click here to watch the event on YouTube.

When Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing this June, his Chinese counterparts once again rejected an offer to establish a military line of communication between Washington and Beijing, an […]