Hi! Welcome...

Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

11 June 2019

Chinese Naval Shipbuilding among “Naval Books of the Year” reviewed in Warship 2019

Conrad Waters; review of Andrew S. Erickson, ed., Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2016); “Naval Books of the Year,” Warship 2019 (UK: Osprey), 203-04.
Hardback, 376 pages, 35 maps, plans & tables; price US$39.95. ISBN 978-1-68247-081-7
This is the sixth in a series of books examining current Chinese naval capabilities jointly […]

10 June 2019

Honored to Contribute “China” Chapter in New Oxford University Press Volume—“Comparative Grand Strategy”

“China,” in Thierry Balzacq, Peter Dombrowski, and Simon Reich, eds., Comparative Grand Strategy: A Framework and Cases (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2019), 73-98.
Abstract:
Scholars still debate the very notion of a Chinese grand strategy. Nonetheless, recent leadership and policy statements, and their explicit linkage to historical patterns of Chinese behavior, suggest that China may well have […]

07 June 2019

Department of Defense Arctic Strategy

Report to Congress: Department of Defense Arctic Strategy (Arlington, VA: Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, June 2019).
Click here to download a cached copy.
DoD’s desired end-state for the Arctic is a secure and stable region in which U.S. national security interests are safeguarded, the U.S. homeland is defended, and nations work cooperatively to […]

06 June 2019

China’s Rare Earth Dominance: How Usable a Weapon?

Andrew S. Erickson and Gabriel B. Collins, “China’s Rare Earth Dominance: How Usable a Weapon?” The National Interest, 6 June 2019.
It could provoke a response from Washington that Beijing does not want to see.
As Washington and Beijing brace for a protracted trade war, Chinese sources increasingly discuss the potential for weaponizing the Middle Kingdom’s major mineral advantage: […]

01 June 2019

The Department of Defense Indo-Pacific Strategy Report: Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Region

The Department of Defense Indo-Pacific Strategy Report: Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Region (Arlington, VA: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 1 June 2019).
Click here to download a cached copy.
 
p. 8
The People’s Republic of China’s Military Modernization and Coercive Actions
As China continues its economic and military ascendance, it seeks Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near-term […]

01 June 2019

France and Security in the Indo-Pacific

France and Security in the Indo-Pacific (Paris: Minister for the Armed Forces, May 2019).
Click here to download a cached copy.
This is definitely not Paris’s version of the Washington’s China Military Power report. It is instead a counterpart to the simultaneously-released  Department of Defense Indo-Pacific Strategy Report. 
In fact, this French document contains only 9 mentions of “China” in […]

30 May 2019

Interviewed by Washington Post “Monkey Cage“ Editor Jessica Chen Weiss of Cornell on “What China’s Assertiveness in the South China Sea Means—And What Comes Next”

Jessica Chen Weiss, “What China’s Assertiveness in the South China Sea Means—And What Comes Next,” The Monkey Cage, Washington Post, 30 May 2019.
China’s ‘maritime gray zone operations’ target U.S. naval vessels.
On Wednesday, General Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, remarked that despite assurances that there would be no moves to […]

29 May 2019

With Beijing Considering a “稀土之战” (Battle of Rare Earths), It’s Time to Revisit Chinese Mining & Mineral Activities Strategically

Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins, “China SignPost™ ‘Greatest Hits’ #6: Mining & Minerals,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 78 (23 December 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
China’s rise as a top global mineral consumer and producer creates three key dynamics that we believe investors and policymakers should follow closely.
First, the pursuit of minerals is bringing Chinese miners and energy […]

29 May 2019

China’s New Rare Earth Power Play Brings China SignPost™ 洞察中国 Analysis Back into the Headlines

Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Gray Gold: China’s Rare Earth Power Play, Impacts, and Suggested Consumer Responses,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 5 (3 November 2010).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
***Note: this summary version does not contain graphics, which are available in the PDF edition.***
Tighter export quotas for rare earth elements (REEs) from China and the recent embargo […]

21 May 2019

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Complete with Latest Recommendations & Fact Sheet

INFORMATION & ANALYSIS CONCERNING CHINA’S MARITIME MILITIA:

Tracking China’s “Little Blue Men”—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium
Rarely is a topic so little recognized and so little understood, yet so important and so amenable to research using Chinese-language open sources… To increase awareness and understanding of this important subject, here is a convenient compendium of major publications and […]

15 May 2019

Andrew Erickson and Ryan Martinson on China and the Maritime Gray Zone

Prashanth Parameswaran, “Andrew Erickson and Ryan Martinson on China and the Maritime Gray Zone,” The Diplomat, 14 May 2019.
How China thinks about and acts in the maritime gray zone, and what that means for the region’s future.
Over the past few years, as China has continued its expansion in the maritime domain, scholars and practitioners alike […]

08 May 2019

The Pentagon Reports: China’s Military Power

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon Reports: China’s Military Power,” The National Interest, 8 May 2019.
The Department of Defense is out with its latest report detailing the rise of Beijing’s military. Here is what you need to know.
As Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Randall G. Schriver emphasized in his rollout remarks on May 2, […]

02 May 2019

Pentagon’s 2019 China Military Power Report Offers Strong Content on Maritime Militia

Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019 (Arlington, VA: Department of Defense, 2 May 2019).
p. 18

p. 52
INCREASING INTEROPERABILITY WITH PARAMILITARY AND MILITIA
Key Takeaways

As of 2018, the CMC assumed direct control of the PAP. As part of this reform, the PAP also assumed control of the China Coast […]

02 May 2019

U.S. Department of Defense Annual Reports to Congress on China’s Military Power—2002-19—Download Complete Set + Read Highlights Here

Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can download cached PDFs of all the Department of Defense’s China reports directly by year!
2019
2018 + Accompanying Fact Sheet
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
 
Additionally, here are some highlights from, and analysis of, several of […]

02 May 2019

U.S. Department of Defense Annual Report to Congress—“Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019”—Click here to read the full-text Report

Click here to read the full text of the 2019 report.
Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019 (Arlington, VA: Department of Defense, 2 May 2019).

30 April 2019

Just Published in The Maritime Executive: “Fact Sheet: The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM)”

Andrew S. Erickson, “Fact Sheet: The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM),” Editorial, The Maritime Executive, 30 April 2019.
 
Fact Sheet: The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM)
BY ANDREW S. ERICKSON 2019-04-30
To distill five years of research on China’s maritime militia into actionable policy recommendations, the author offers the following memorandum, which he proposes to be issued with […]

29 April 2019

Fact Sheet: China’s Maritime Militia

Fact Sheet: The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM)
Professor Andrew S. Erickson
29 April 2019
As the National Security Strategy of the United States of America 2017 emphasizes, China is engaged in continuous competition with America—neither fully “at peace” nor “at war.” Per this national guidance, we will raise our competitive game to meet that challenge, in part by […]

29 April 2019

China’s South China Sea Strategy Takes a Hit as the US Navy Threatens to Get Tough on Beijing’s Sea Forces

Ryan Pickrell, “China’s South China Sea Strategy Takes a Hit as the US Navy Threatens to Get Tough on Beijing’s Sea Forces,” Business Insider, 29 April 2019.

The US Navy’s top admiral has warned China that the US will treat China’s coast guard and maritime militia the same as the People’s Liberation Army Navy, the Financial […]

29 April 2019

CNO Richardson: U.S. Won’t Treat China’s Coast Guard or Maritime Militia Differently from Navy

Demetri Sevastopulo and Kathrin Hille, “US Warns China on Aggressive Acts by Fishing Boats and Coast Guard,” Financial Times, 28 April 2019.
Navy chief says Washington will use military rules of engagement to curb provocative behaviour
The US has warned China that it will respond to provocative acts by its coast guard and fishing boats […]