11 July 2013

National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) Issues 2013 “Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat” Report

National Air and Space Intelligence Center, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat (Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH, 2013).
Click here to read the full text of the report.
Hans Kristensen’s evaluation can be accessed here.
Issued four years after the previous iteration, this detailed report is to be welcomed. Perhaps due to the vagaries of bureaucratic processes, it […]

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07 July 2013

The Dragon Extends its Reach: Chinese Military Power Goes Global

Larry M. Wortzel, The Dragon Extends its Reach: Chinese Military Power Goes Global (Dulles, VA: Potomac Books, 2013).
China has evolved from a nation with local and regional security interests to a major economic and political power with global interests, investments, and political commitments. It now requires a military that can project itself around the globe, […]

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23 June 2013

China SignPost™ (洞察中国) #71—“Counting Cars: Rising Private Automobile Ownership in Chinese Cities Paves Road for Gasoline Demand”

Gabe Collins and Andrew Erickson, “Counting Cars: Rising Private Automobile Ownership in Chinese Cities Paves Road for Gasoline Demand,” China SignPost™ (洞察中国) 71 (24 June 2013).
China SignPost™ 洞察中国–“Clear, high-impact China analysis.”©
“Texas-sized” used to be the benchmark for large-scale car ownership, but “China-sized” is emerging as the new metric. We assembled statistical data for 36 cities […]

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20 June 2013

Latest Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report—Ronald O’Rourke, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 April 2013), RL33153, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf.
Summary
The question of how the United States should respond to China’s military modernization effort, including its naval modernization effort, has emerged as a key issue in U.S. defense planning. The question is of particular importance to […]

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10 June 2013

A Statement before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Panel III: “China’s Political and Security Challenges in the Middle East,” “China and the Middle East” hearing, Washington, DC, 6 June 2013

Andrew S. Erickson, A Statement before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Panel III: “China’s Political and Security Challenges in the Middle East,” “China and the Middle East” hearing, Washington, DC, 6 June 2013.
Click here to watch webcast of hearing.
My testimony reflects my personal views and not the policies or estimates of the U.S. Navy or […]

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07 June 2013

How China Got There First: Beijing’s Unique Path to ASBM Development and Deployment

Andrew S. Erickson, “How China Got There First: Beijing’s Unique Path to ASBM Development and Deployment,” Jamestown Foundation China Brief 13.12 (7 June 2013).
China’s deployment of the world’s first operational anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) has just been confirmed with unprecedented clarity by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD). The ASBM’s development path was unusual in many […]

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07 June 2013

How Obama and Xi Can Avoid California Dreaming

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, “How Obama and Xi Can Avoid California Dreaming,” China Real Time Report (中国实时报), Wall Street Journal, 7 June 2013.
President Barack Obama’s upcoming summit with President Xi Jinping at the Sunnylands estate in Palm Springs, Calif., comes at a crossroads for U.S.-China relations. There are of course the usual […]

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06 June 2013

Hearing: “China and the Middle East”—Live Webcast, Statements, and Bios Now Available

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
 
Thursday, June 6, 2013
 
Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 608
Washington, DC 20002

Hearing Co-Chairs: Commissioners Jeffrey L. Fiedler and James Talent
 
9:00a–9:05a        Co-Chairs’ remarks: Commissioners Jeffrey L. Fiedler and James Talent (Comm. Fiedler Opening Remarks) (Comm. Talent Opening Remarks)
 
9:05a–10:20a     Panel I:  China’s Perspectives and Policy in the Middle East

Dr. Dawn Murphy, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, […]

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03 June 2013

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission to Hold “China and the Middle East” Hearing, Thursday 6 June 2013

– HEARING NOTICE –
China and the Middle East
Hearing Co-Chairs: Commissioners Jeffrey L. Fiedler and James Talent
WHAT: Public Hearing on “China and the Middle East.” The hearing will examine China’s policies and perspectives related to the Middle East, including on energy security, trade and investment, regional conflicts, and instability in countries like Syria and Iran. […]

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30 May 2013

Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications

Andrew S. Erickson, Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Development: Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation/Brookings Institution Press, 2013).
Now available via Amazon, including as a Kindle eBook!
Click here to purchase this book via Brookings Institution Press or from the Jamestown Store.
China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, has reached the equivalent of Initial Operational Capability. While perfecting the […]

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24 May 2013

China Has Drones. Now What? When Beijing Will—and Won’t—Use Its UAVs

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, “China Has Drones. Now What? When Beijing Will—and Won’t—Use Its UAVs,” Foreign Affairs, 23 May 2013.
The time to fret about when China will acquire drones is over: it has them. The question now is when and how it will use them. But as with its other, less exotic military capabilities, […]

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22 May 2013

China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment

Having read all 416 pages, I can attest that this integrated strategic net assessment offers useful data and thoughtful consideration of important alternative futures!
Michael D. Swaine, Mike M. Mochizuki, Michael L. Brown, Paul S. Giarra, Douglas H. Paal, Rachel Esplin Odell, Raymond Lu, Oliver Palmer, Xu Ren, China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A […]

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16 May 2013

Lifting the Shroud on China’s Defense Spending: Trends, Drivers, and Implications—An Interview with Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff

Nathaniel Austin, “Lifting the Shroud on China’s Defense Spending: Trends, Drivers, and Implications—An Interview with Andrew S. Erickson and Adam P. Liff,” Policy Q&A, National Bureau of Asian Research, 16 May 2013.
In March, the Chinese government announced another multibillion-dollar increase of its defense budget. In order to gain a more nuanced understanding of the latest budget’s […]

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16 May 2013

India’s Steady Progress in Rockets and Satellites

Andrew S. Erickson, “India’s Steady Progress in Rockets and Satellites,” in Anthony M. Springer, ed., Proceedings of the Forty-First History Symposium of the International Academy of Astronautics, American Astronautical Society (AAS) History Series, Vol. 38 (San Diego, CA: Univelt, 2012), 359-94.          CHAPTER TEXT          ENDNOTES & VOLUME INFORMATION
India’s development […]

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13 May 2013

Xi’s War Drums

Worth a read if you haven’t had a chance already…
John Garnaut, “Xi’s War Drums,” Foreign Policy (May/June 2013).
China’s new leader is using the military to consolidate his power. But has he unleashed forces beyond his control?
Every morning at 6 a.m., more than two dozen of the world’s leading submarine watchers, aviation experts, government specialists, imagery […]

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13 May 2013

Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits

Michael J. Lostumbo, Michael J. McNerney, Eric Peltz, Derek Eaton, David R. Frelinger, Victoria A. Greenfield, John Halliday, Patrick Mills, Bruce R. Nardulli, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jerry M. Sollinger, Stephen Worman, Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013), RR-201. 
Section 347 of the […]

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13 May 2013

Toward “Land” or Toward “Sea”? The High-Speed Railway and China’s Grand Strategy

Looking for substantive geostrategic analysis by a top Chinese scholar? Read on!
Wu Zhengyu, “Toward ‘Land’ or Toward ‘Sea’? The High-Speed Railway and China’s Grand Strategy,” Naval War College Review 66.3 (Summer 2013): 53-65.
China’s maritime development having come up against pressures and challenges in recent years, the concept of “strategic hedging”—that is, pursuit of and investment […]

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13 May 2013

Authoritarian Signaling, Mass Audiences, and Nationalist Protest in China

Incisive analysis on a timely and important topic!
Jessica Chen Weiss, “Authoritarian Signaling, Mass Audiences, and Nationalist Protest in China,” International Organization, 67.1 (January 2013): 1-35.
How can authoritarian states credibly signal their intentions in international crises? Nationalist, antiforeign protests are one mechanism by which authoritarian leaders can visibly demonstrate their domestic vulnerability. Because protests in authoritarian […]

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07 May 2013

Pentagon Report Reveals Chinese Military Developments

Andrew S. Erickson, “Pentagon Report Reveals Chinese Military Developments,” The Diplomat, 8 May 2013.
After a year-long hiatus, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)’s annual report on Chinese military developments is back and better than ever. Its 43-page 2012 predecessor was widely criticized for arriving far later than Congress requested and containing little substance or new data. But […]

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