Andrew S. Erickson

As part of Ronald O’Rourke’s continuous incremental improvements, this # 26X (!) edition of his report on PRC naval modernization incorporates numbers provided by the U.S. Navy. Given the authoritative analysis supporting these revelations, and the rarity with which they are made publicly available in this manner, they are all worth reading carefully in full!
Bottom […]

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Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (McLean, VA: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 6 February 2023).

This annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States responds to Section 617 of the FY21 Intelligence Authorization Act (Pub. L. No. 116-260). This report reflects the collective insights of the […]

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PRC-Russia Cooperation—Spotlighting PRC’s Continued Support to Russia Despite Legal Commitments to Ukraine (Honolulu, HI: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, 22 October 2022).
UNCLASSIFIED
USINDOPACOM J06/SJA TACAID SERIES
Prepared by: INDOPACOM Joint Operational Law Team, PACOM.J06.All@navy.mil Last Updated: October 6, 2022

TOPIC: PRC-Russia Cooperation
Spotlighting PRC’s Continued Support to Russia Despite Legal Commitments to Ukraine
BLUF

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, PRC committed to respect […]

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Now in its 142nd (!) iteration, this periodically-updated Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 8 February 2023).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy […]

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Updated with non-substantive copy edits 26 December 2022
THE PENTAGON’S 2022 CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT: MY SUMMARY

XI’S VISION MATERIALIZING—RELENTLESS RAMP-UP TOWARD 2027 & BEYOND

ANDREW S. ERICKSON
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report: My Summary,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 December 2022.

A printable version of my summary is available here.

Document analyzed: Office […]

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Check it out! Don’t miss the China government naval/maritime ship recognition guide graphic that the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) just released! First time this unparalleled resource has been publicly updated in two years and ten months…
Worth waiting for! PRC Navy, Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia forces all documented authoritatively as nowhere else.
Even a quick glance […]

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My initial take:
This year’s report documents a relentless ramp-up of PRC military capabilities toward 2027 and beyond. Despite having over 400 nuclear warheads already, and expanding at a rate that would reach 1,500 by 2035, Beijing refuses to acknowledge its buildup, let alone engage in arms control discussions. We are seeing the dangerous results of […]

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Now that the Department of Defense (DoD) has just released the 2022 China Military Power Report (CMPR)… you can access the Full Text & accompanying documents below. Since I couldn’t find a single-source location on the Internet, and the Pentagon has deactivated some of the previous links, I decided to make my own. Now you can […]

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2022 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, One Hundred Seventeenth Congress, Second Session, 15 November 2022.
Click here to download a cached copy of the full text.

Topics this year include CCP decision-making and Xi Jinping’s centralization of authority, challenging China’s trade practices, China’s energy plans and practices, U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities and resilience, China’s […]

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Chinese Space Activities Will Increasingly Challenge U.S. Interests through 2030, National Intelligence Estimate NIE 2021-01634 (Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, April 2021; declassified by DNI Haines 17 September 2022).

[To maximize readability, the below transcription renders redactions of any length as brief ellipses. Click here to download a cached copy of the […]

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2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America, Including the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review and the 2022 Missile Defense Review (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 27 October 2022).
First-ever release of UNCLASS Nuclear Posture Review and UNCLASS Missile Defense Review in the same document.
Click here to read the background summary.

NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY
 p. iii
The NDS directs the Department to […]

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Challenges to Security in Space: Space Reliance in an Era of Competition and Expansion (Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence Agency, 2022).

Click here to download a cached copy.
 p. iii
Challenges to Security in Space was first published in early 2019 to address the main threats to the array of U.S. space capabilities, and examine space and counterspace strategies and […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 25 May 2022.

Amid wave after wave of Coronavirus variants, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes. Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, I hope […]

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Now in its 139th (!) iteration, this periodically-updated Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 January 2022).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy […]

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As part of Ronald O’Rourke’s continuous incremental improvements, this 261st (!) edition of his report on PRC naval modernization incorporates numbers provided by the U.S. Navy. Given the authoritative analysis supporting these revelations, and the rarity with which they are made publicly available in this manner, they are all worth reading carefully in full!
Bottom line […]

Continue Reading

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community (McLean, VA: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 2022). [with information as of January 2022]

PRC-specific content, pp. 6–9:

CHINA
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue efforts to achieve President’s Xi Jinping’s vision of making China the preeminent power in East Asia […]

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The Russian Navy – A Historic Transition
ONI’s most recent unclassified report on Russia’s navy, The Russian Navy – A Historic Transition, looks historically and currently at the role played by Russian naval forces. It is the first such report discussing the Russian Federation Navy by ONI since the seventh and last issue of Understanding Soviet […]

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Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 28 January 2022.

Amid wave after wave of Coronavirus variants, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes. Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, I hope […]

Continue Reading

Now in its 138th (!) iteration, this periodically-updated Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 18 January 2022).
If you have trouble accessing the website above, please download a cached copy […]

Continue Reading