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Andrew S. Erickson China's rapid development is reshaping the world in all dimensions. Chinese language open sources offer insights into these critical trends. While such materials are increasing constantly in number, diversity, and sophistication, only a fraction is available in English. The analyses available here, many based on sources not previously considered outside China, are designed to help bridge that gap--and thereby increase understanding of the most dynamic great power in the international system today.

21 November 2020

The Oriana Skylar Mastro Bookshelf: Scholar-Servicemember Insights into Leading Chinese & Indo-Pacific Security Issues

Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Center Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Within FSI, she works primarily in the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) as well. She is also a fellow in Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise […]

18 November 2020

The Elements of the China Challenge

The Policy Planning Staff, The Elements of the China Challenge (Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of State, November 2020).
Click here to download a cached copy.
Executive Summary
Awareness has been growing in the United States — and in nations around the world — that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has triggered a new era of great-power competition. […]

17 November 2020

The China Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Bookshelf

Andrew S. Erickson, “The China Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) Bookshelf,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国,
17 November 2020.
“Warning to the United States!” In August 2020, China ‘went ballistic’—firing DF-26B and DF-21D “aircraft carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) into the South China Sea. PRC sources just confirmed that the missiles struck a moving target. Time […]

15 November 2020

China’s DF-21D And DF-26B ASBMs: Is The U.S. Military Ready?

Andrew S. Erickson, interviewed by Harry J. Kazianis, “China’s DF-21D And DF-26B ASBMs: Is The U.S. Military Ready?” 19FortyFive, 15 November 2020.
… … … With its continued development of ASBMs and associated targeting architecture, China continues to work on changing the game in the South China Sea and beyond—but so too does the United States with its own […]

15 November 2020

U.S.-China Military-to-Military Relations: Policy Considerations in a Changing Environment

Andrew S. Erickson, “U.S.-China Military-to-Military Relations: Policy Considerations in a Changing Environment,” in Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, and Tiffany Ma, eds., Securing the China Dream: The PLA’s Role in a Time of Reform and Change (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2020), 113–33. 
Click here to download full-text PDF of volume.

The U.S. government’s executive and […]

12 November 2020

Hold The Line through 2035: A Strategy to Offset China’s Revisionist Actions and Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the Asia-Pacific

Gabriel B. Collins and Andrew S. Erickson, Hold The Line through 2035: A Strategy to Offset China’s Revisionist Actions and Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the Asia-Pacific (Houston, TX: Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, 12 November 2020).
The authors offer strategies to counter an increasingly aggressive China and to position the Indo-Asia-Pacific for continued prosperity […]

09 November 2020

The Michael Chase Bookshelf: Policy-Relevant Research on China’s Military Development, Deterrence & Cross-Strait Security

Professor Michael Chase, my former Naval War College colleague, has both extensive U.S. government experience and a set of publications that are must-reads for scholars, policy-makers, and all others following PRC military progress and power. It has been a great honor and pleasure to collaborate with Dr. Chase on multiple research and writing projects over […]

09 November 2020

The Ryan Martinson Bookshelf: Must-Read Revelations re China’s Maritime Policies, Sea Forces & Oceanic Operations

For analysis of Chinese maritime policy and China Coast Guard development, it simply doesn’t get any better than this. Enjoy this fully updated one-stop library of my colleague Ryan Martinson’s work. It’s well worth reading all of these superb publications and interviews, even as they exceed three dozen in number!
Andrew S. Erickson, “The Ryan Martinson […]

06 November 2020

New CRS Report with China Content: “Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress”

Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress R41153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 4 November 2020).
Click here to download a cached copy. 

KEY CHINA-RELATED TEXT:
p. 29
China in the Arctic
China’s Growing Activities in the Arctic
China’s diplomatic, economic, and scientific activities in the Arctic have grown steadily in recent years, and have emerged as a […]

03 November 2020

CMSI China Maritime Report #10: “PLAN Force Structure Projection Concept: A Methodology for Looking Down Range”

Capt. Christopher P. Carlson, USNR (Ret.), PLAN Force Structure Projection Concept: A Methodology for Looking Down Range, China Maritime Report 10 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, November 2020).
Force structure projections of an adversary’s potential order of battle are an essential input into the strategic planning process. Currently, the majority of […]

01 November 2020

The China Maritime Militia Bookshelf: Latest Data, Official Statements & Wikipedia Entry

Andrew S. Erickson, “Tracking China’s ‘Little Blue Men’—A Comprehensive Maritime Militia Compendium,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 1 November 2020.

As Coronavirus rages on, fishy things have been happening across the South and East China Seas, home to virtually all of China’s unresolved maritime disputes… Since Beijing remains far from being fully forthcoming and transparent, it is to be […]

01 November 2020

New CCG + PAFMM Info in 117th ed. of Ron O’Rourke’s CRS Report—“U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South & East China Seas”

Now in its 117th iteration, not far behind its counterpart on PLA Navy development, this Library of Congress report is indispensable for policy-makers and analysts alike!

Ronald O’Rourke, U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Implications for U.S. Interests—Background and Issues for Congress, R42784 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 27 October 2020).
If you have trouble accessing […]

29 October 2020

China Navy Ship Numbers through 2040!!—From U.S. Navy via CRS in “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities”

Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress, RL33153 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 28 October 2020).
Having trouble accessing the website above? Please download a cached copy here!
You can also click here to access the report via the public CRS website.
***
In addition to his continuous incremental improvements, Ronald O’Rourke has revised this latest edition of […]

23 October 2020

CMSI China Maritime Report #9: “Organizing to Fight in the Far Seas: The Chinese Navy in an Era of Military Reform”

Roderick Lee and Morgan Clemens, Organizing to Fight in the Far Seas: The Chinese Navy in an Era of Military Reform, China Maritime Report 9 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, October 2020). 
CMSI has just published China Maritime Report No. 9, entitled Organizing to Fight in the Far Seas: The Chinese Navy in an Era […]

09 October 2020

Honored to Contribute “China’s Maritime Militia: An Important Force Multiplier” in Admiral McDevitt’s book on China as a 21st-Century Naval Power

Honored to contribute to Admiral McDevitt’s landmark book. This must-read volume rightly recognizes China as already having unmatched across-the-board maritime capabilities in 2020, and offers PLA Navy projections to 2035!
Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy, “Appendix II—China’s Maritime Militia: An Important Force Multiplier,” in Michael McDevitt, China as a Twenty-First-Century Naval Power: Theory, Practice, and […]

09 October 2020

Navy Force Structure & Shipbuilding Plans: Background & Issues for Congress

Ronald O’Rourke, Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 7 October 2020).
Click here to download a cached copy.
And be sure to check out the freshly-updated Table 2 below!
Summary
In December 2016, the Navy released a force-structure goal that calls for achieving and maintaining a fleet of 355 […]

07 October 2020

Naval Intelligence Essay Contest Winner—First Prize: “Embrace Analog Tools in a Digital Intelligence Age”

Commander Christopher Nelson, U.S. Navy, and Andrew Rhodes, “Embrace Analog Tools in a Digital Intelligence Age,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings 146.10 (October 2020).

Naval Intelligence Essay Contest Winner—First Prize
Cosponsored by the Naval Institute and Naval Intelligence Professionals

Summary: The naval intelligence community must strike a balance between old tools and new technology.
Commander Nelson is the deputy […]

02 October 2020

“Modern Chinese Maritime Forces”—New Edition—Unmatched Detail on World’s Largest Navy, Coast Guard & Maritime Militia!

Manfred Meyer (edited by Larry Bond and Chris Carlson), Modern Chinese Maritime Forces (Admiralty Trilogy Group, 1 October 2020).

“A compilation of all ships and boats of the Chinese Navy, Coast Guard, Maritime Militia and other state authorities”
In terms of ship numbers, each of China’s three sea forces is the world’s largest by a large margin. For the […]

28 September 2020

The China Military Power Report 2020 Bookshelf

The latest edition of the Pentagon’s China Military Power reports, released at the beginning of this month, is also the greatest since their inception twenty years ago. At 173 pages, it also the longest and most substantive. A high-water mark in public analysis from the Office of the Secretary of Defense, it begins with a self-critical […]