Andrew S. Erickson

China’s making a big splash in the Western Hemisphere! Ryan Martinson shows how the world’s largest blue-water marine scientific research fleet operates globally, including in Latin America, undermining coastal state and American interests more broadly. Don’t miss Ryan’s unique appendix cataloguing these important but understudied ships!
Ryan D. Martinson, “China’s Blue-Water Research Fleet: Science in Service […]

Robert Leslie and Chris Panella, “Chinese Fishing Boats Have Been Making Some Unusual Moves Lately in the East China Sea, Satellite Images and Shipping Data Show,” Business Insider, 30 January 2026.

“The scale, geometry, coordination, and rapid assembly and dispersal of these formations are simply irreconcilable with normal fishing behavior,” Andrew S. Erickson, a professor at the US […]

Insightful analysis of General Zhang Youxia (张又侠)’s purge by K. Tristan Tang just out in Jamestown China Brief.
Unique firsthand details from Drew Thompson.

Read together, they suggest a talented top PLA leader whose power, connections, and initiative became too threatening to Xi and his objectives.
While Zhang Youxia is officially charged with #1, this fits with #2 […]

No small thing for the Central Military Commission’s #2 (behind Xi) & #4 to be investigated. And we all know how publicly-announced PRC investigations turn out…
To make sense of this major revelation, here’s some background & context on “corruption” vs. capabilities in China’s Navy & military more broadly, including regarding Taiwan per Xi’s Centennial Military Building […]

Chris Buckley, Agnes Chang and Amy Chang Chien, “Thousands of Chinese Fishing Boats Quietly Form Vast Sea Barriers,” New York Times, 16 January 2026.
My overall thoughts:

The vessels’ highly systematic formation cannot be explained by fishing.
Trawlers would not risk competing for fish or snarling their lines in relatively close quarters.
This blockade-line-type formation seems much more likely to be an […]

CMSI Quarterly Review 1.2 (Winter 2026) (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, 8 January 2026).

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From CMSI Director Christopher Sharman:
We are pleased to share the Fall/Winter double issue of the CMSI Quarterly Review, highlighting the China Maritime Studies Institute’s latest scholarship, media engagement, and institutional activities from August through […]

Gordon Arthur, “Pentagon Outlines the Growing Threat Posed by the PLA,” Asian Military Review, 9 January 2026.

Dr. Andrew Erickson, Professor of Strategy at the US Naval War College, noted one important revelation in the 2025 Pentagon report. It surrounds confirmation that China has fielded the conventional DF-27 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The DF-27 features both […]

Unfolding events have made me reflect on Iran through both research and personal family history.
My grandfather oversaw Grumman’s F-14 program in Iran in the 1970s. The stories that stayed with him—especially the extraordinary kindness shown by ordinary Iranians during the upheaval of 1979—shaped how I came to understand Iran’s people and culture.
I place those experiences […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “Latest Pentagon Report: China’s Military Advancing Amid Churn,” War on the Rocks, 9 January 2026.

Simultaneous disruption and progress, with a relentless Taiwan-focused capability development deadline.
That’s the overriding theme of the 25th edition of the Department of Defense’s China Military Power Report, released on Dec. 23, 2025. Despite extensive leadership purges and ongoing disciplinary […]

Thomas Shugart and J. Michael Dahm, “Flooding the Zone: The Use of Civilian Landing Craft (LCTs) in PLA Amphibious Operations,” CMSI Note 18 (Newport, RI: Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute, 7 January 2026).

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From CMSI Director Christopher Sharman:
China PLA Watchers: Many have argued that the PLA lacks […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “The China Navy Leadership: Corruption & Capabilities Bookshelf,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 5 January 2026.

Since Xi assumed power in 2012, scores of flag and general officers and defense industry leaders have been removed. This is part of a larger pattern across China’s entire Party-State-Military bureaucracy. By my earlier tally, Xi-era […]

Bill Gertz, “PLA: War Games Practice for a Taiwan Takeover,” The Washington Times, 31 December 2025.
Disclaimer: The perspectives expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not represent the views, policies, or positions of the Naval War College, the Department of the Navy, or any other organization of the […]

Start the New Year right with the 1 January 2026 edition of “Modern Chinese Maritime Forces,” the most comprehensive open source PRC sea services inventory! As we approach the Year of the Horse (丙午/“Fire Horse”), China under Xi is steaming full speed ahead, particularly at sea. Navigate troubled Indo-Pacific waters by consulting the latest version […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “The Pentagon’s New China Report: ‘Conventional’ ICBMs, More Nuclear Weapons and New Aircraft Carriers on the Horizon,” 19FortyFive, 29 December 2025.
Disclaimer: The perspectives expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not represent the views, policies, or positions of the Naval War College, the Department of […]

Corruption, Cashiering, Continued Progress:
New China Military Power Report Probes PLA Leadership and Organizational Trends
Andrew S. Erickson[1]
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of War or its components, to include the Department of […]

Andrew S. Erickson, “World’s Fastest Nuclear Force Ramp-Up: Strengthening for China’s 2027 Goal Despite Disciplinary Removals,” China Analysis from Original Sources 以第一手资料研究中国, 27 December 2025.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of […]

China’s DF-27 Conventional ICBM and ASBM:
Threatening America’s Homeland, Pacific Ships, and Escalation Risks
Andrew S. Erickson
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of War or its components, to include the Department of the […]

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author alone, based solely on open sources. They do not necessarily represent the views, policies, or positions of the U.S. Department of War or its components, to include the Department of the Navy or the U.S. Naval War College.
The Pentagon’s new China Military Power Report focuses […]

Office of the Secretary of War, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2025 (Washington, DC: Department of Defense/War, 23 December 2025).

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The Pentagon’s new China Military Power Report focuses on concisely reviewing new PLA & related developments (rather than rehashing previous years’s analysis or providing general […]